Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[idfnl]

Yeah... I didn't want to buy more BtC once it hit 1k (didn't know if sustainable). Obviously regret it now

If you bought $100 in bitcoin 7 years ago, it would be worth 72 million.

 

[Master-Classter]

Serious question, do you think it's 'worth' buying in now? Like I could throw 4-5K at it and just leave it for 10 years and see what happens. Worst case it's zero, best case it's a potentially huge return. Thoughts?

 

[idfnl]

Serious question, do you think it's 'worth' buying in now? Like I could throw 4-5K at it and just leave it for 10 years and see what happens. Worst case it's zero, best case it's a potentially huge return. Thoughts?

That's tough, it's doubled, and Etherum has gone up 1700%. These are insane moves.

If it was my money, I would wait for a crash, but it might hit 4,000 and then crash to 2700, so you'd miss out.

I would buy small bits, that way you spread out the risk, if you get a crash in that time, put the rest in.

I am worried a cryptocurrency bubble is forming, but my strategy here has always been to swing for the fence. Long term, I think this is what money will eventually be.

 

[brokencycle]

The risk to crypto currency is government cracking and tracking it (they probably have but just hasn't become public yet). That or big thefts that shake trust in the platform and people move to the next one.

 

[idfnl]

The risk to crypto currency is government cracking and tracking it (they probably have but just hasn't become public yet). That or big thefts that shake trust in the platform and people move to the next one.

I think the biggest risk is different, though you do point out 2 valid ones, in that so many cryptocurrencies get put out there that it waters down the value across the board.

 

[otc]

I've seen some discussion of risk of certain chinese mining pools getting enough power to start forging transactions/creating fake coins because they control the blockchain. Not that they would necessarily actually do it (once there is evidence of faked transactions, the currency would probably crash as people flee), but once that specter is there....how much can you really trust it?

I think the issue is something along the lines of: The returns to mining have become so low, that fewer and fewer hobbyists are dedicating significant resources to it. At the same time, the transaction fee thing isn't significant enough to compel people into mining with the intention of receiving those fees (rather than mining for the value of the coin itself).

 

[idfnl]

I've seen some discussion of risk of certain chinese mining pools getting enough power to start forging transactions/creating fake coins because they control the blockchain. Not that they would necessarily actually do it (once there is evidence of faked transactions, the currency would probably crash as people flee), but once that specter is there....how much can you really trust it?

I think the issue is something along the lines of: The returns to mining have become so low, that fewer and fewer hobbyists are dedicating significant resources to it. At the same time, the transaction fee thing isn't significant enough to compel people into mining with the intention of receiving those fees (rather than mining for the value of the coin itself).

False transactions are immediately purged. It's not really possible to control the block chain unless every computer keeping it up is compromised.

There are fewer bitcoin available every day, so the cost of retrieving them gets higher, the logic is that they're worth more.

 

[otc]

That's incorrect. The bitcoin structure is at risk if any single group has control of just over half of the processing power. It happened once a few years ago that a group temporarily had 51% of the power...and it was a big deal.

The biggest mining pools out there are chinese, and there is supposedly a lot of connection between them. A year ago, those pools accounted for like 70% of the hashing power. Obviously those pools are made up of individuals, many of whom would not like to see bitcoin destabilized...but who knows. There are also some fears of chinese government intervention...using force to gain control of those pools. They are not super open to the ideals of Bitcoin...and a grab like that would be a great way to destabilize and destroy the whole thing (while leaving room for corrupt officials to skim a bunch of personal profit in the interim).

 

[otc]

Also, I think you are missing the fact that over time the "returns to mining" are supposed to come from transaction fees, not from the value of new coins. Sure, the coins become worth more, which means that despite decreasing mining rate, you can still earn profit--but if the currency is ever to become viable as a transaction medium, then it can't actually grow in value at a rate that would make mining profitable.

That's where the transaction fees come into play...but if there aren't enough people paying transaction fees to entice widely distributed entry into the mining market, then the risk of a 51% attack increases.

 

[brokencycle]

False transactions are immediately purged. It's not really possible to control the block chain unless every computer keeping it up is compromised.

There are fewer bitcoin available every day, so the cost of retrieving them gets higher, the logic is that they're worth more.

That doesn't make sense. Just because it is harder to mine bitcoins doesn't somehow make them more valuable. Gold prices don't go up because it gets more expensive to mine gold.

The cost of mining bitcoins is growing rapidly, so if prices stop climbing, the mining will just stop.

 

[jbarwick]

At the beginning of May I repositioned half of my broad international allocation to have more of a tilt towards European equities. Over the month of May, this position outperformed the S&P by 3% and the international fund I had it in by 1.5%. While I'd love to pat myself on the back, the gains offset the losses of my bonds and REITs.

 

[Master-Classter]

So I'm learning as I go here, as you've all witnessed... one of my mistakes that's been haunting me for nearly a year now has been SPI. I don't even know what the hell they do. It just came on my radar a while ago and seemed to jump around a lot so I thought I'd play with it. It kept dropping and I kept adding and next thing I knew I was WAY over committed and still down 75%, yes, that much. I started buying it for $5 last year and it did a bit of bouncing around 1.2-1.4 and in the past few weeks dropped to below a dollar, then eventually hit 30 cents. I was holding +10% of my entire portfolio in this **** and average cost about $1.4 from originally buying in at $5 so you can imagine how many times I bought and sold and how much I was holding. And had banked some losses along the way too. They get a notice that they might be delisted. It's all gone to hell. I figure, I can cut it now and walk away and lose 75% of teh money but preserve the last bit, or hang in for a hail mary. Hell, I even added a few more shares around 50 cents. Then boom, suddenly in one night it goes up 650-700% (yes, read it again). I had cancelled all my previous sell orders and didn't even realize. I sold off as much as I could as fast as I could but it dropped from 2.2-2.4 back down to 1.9 before the end of the day, then after hours back to 1.7. It was falling fast and I could sell and get most of my money back. Was it a pump and dump and that was it? Do I cut my losses at 30% or so and walk and be glad I'm done, or see if this baby has another rally in her. I search for news, and there's nothing. Not a stitch of commentary even. No explanation. I still don't even know what the company does. I just want my money back. But I start thinking, hmmm, maybe I could even make some profit on this. I'd caught the bear's hand, I just rode the bull up, maybe it was time for some bacon. So I bought some at 1.6 and 1.5 hoping for another rally to $2 where I'll sell it all off and break even. It drops to 1.4, then 1.3. After-hours it's down to 1.1. Damn. Damn. Damn. Well ****, I'd already written off the money. There's got to be someone else who's greedy and wants this action. I'm fairly sure it'll go for another ride. Not sure enough that my palms are dry or I sleep well waiting of the next market opening. It opens and shoots from 1.1 up, and up fast. I trim at 1.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8 and I'm close to being out. I'm only down 10% overall and it's so close. It hovers and falls t0 1.7, then 1.8. Can it rally to my final sell order at $2? It's 2am and I have to go to sleep. I mutter a prayer at an inanimate object, set my sell order and go to sleep. I wake up and see no email alerts. It turned back at 1.7 and fell down to 1.35-1.45. I'm so close to being out, just a couple of thousand more shares and $1000 in the hole. Tonight will be the final push. I'll collect a few more shares if it drops to 1.1-1.2, plead for someone else to be greedy and rally it to 1.5-1.8, anywhere really, so I can sell it, walk away even, and never touch this or any micro-cap I know nothing about again. I'll know by the end of tonight, until then, I'm pacing.

 

[venividivicibj]

Thats a lot of cologne man

 

[jbarwick]

Sell that **** and take the loss.

 

[Master-Classter]

Phew, up 52% premarket to 2.05 and I just sold my last little bit. Walked away down $700 more or less and got back about $12K so close call and I'm glad to be out. Hot damn. I'll still track this out of curiosity to see what happens anyway. Still no news of why any of this is happening. And I still don't know what the company does lol.