Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[djblisk]



I have some money to deploy but very concerned about a serious connection looming with the interest rate hike and general private company over-unicornification filtering its way into the public markets. The research says that I should go lump sum and invest now but it also shows that 1/3 of the time you're better off dollar cost averaging and given all the indicators my gut is telling me this is more than 1/3 likely to be a better time to DCA.

What do you all think? If you had a material (to you) amount to invest right now, would you go lump sum now or would you trickle it into the market over the next 12-18 months? I'm only looking at the broader market and not temporal factors relating to individual stocks. I'm likely to invest almost exclusively in index funds (possibly just vanguard total market) because I'm prohibited from investing in a lot of the high performing stocks due to family relationships (not worth going into but sufficed to say, it's become quite a hassle to figure out what I can invest in and not worth tracking any more).

Scared money don't make no money

 

[GreenFrog]

Scared money also don't suffer no losses.

 

[MSchapiro]

Given the market situation and current valuations I'd be hesitant to deploy a large sum of capital.

I'd probably deploy a smaller amount in a leverage investment (like ZIV) to capture some of the gains I may be missing while leaving most of my money on the sidelines and slowly bringing it into play.

 

[chogall]



Scared money don't make no money

That's why people whom never been through 89, 91, 97, 01, 08, 10 correction/bear markets love to BTFD. They will become more rational after a bear market. Until then, BTFD!

 

[djblisk]



Scared money also don't suffer no losses.

Of course!!!

Jeezus.

 

[guyver00]

BTFD?

 

[chogall]



BTFD?

Buy The ******* Dip. Since markets always move higher and Fed is always going to rescue.

 

[brokencycle]

50% drop by Nimble Storage today. Could be a rough quarter for other storage/data center companies.

 

[OmniscientCause]

eh idk why i havent looked into this thread before...im a tech analyst on my schools investment fund and hold AAPL/MSFT and replaced INTC and XRX with CTSH and ATVI...ATVI has been my better play of the two netting 33% return in the past few months.

CTSH is a longer play and if it doesnt do anything in the next few months ill replace it with SAP if i can make the model work. I wanted to pitch CRM but it was too difficult to justify the current valuation even more so after releasing those good earnings the other day.

Im only allowed to pitch a stock once a quarter so my next one wont be until late jan early feb.



How many people build DCF models to determine their trades?

 

[jbarwick]

No one here is discounting cash flows to figure out investments. Some have a fun money account which they post their trades from and others just put what their over arching investment philosophy is.

 

[OmniscientCause]

It doesn't take that long and if you believe in fundamental analysis it's worth doing.

 

[jbarwick]

It doesn't take that long and if you believe in fundamental analysis it's worth doing.

How do you weigh risk and uncertainty in your DCF model? For instance how do you weigh the potential for a Fed interest rate hike?

I read equity analyst reports covering my company's sector and it is interesting to dissect their DCF models and compare them as they vary drastically. For instance, your school holds AAPL, I would be interested to hear how you figure out how many iPhones will be sold and how that amount is valued in your DCF model.

 

[OmniscientCause]



How do you weigh risk and uncertainty in your DCF model?  For instance how do you weigh the potential for a Fed interest rate hike?  

I read equity analyst reports covering my company's sector and it is interesting to dissect their DCF models and compare them as they vary drastically.  For instance, your school holds AAPL, I would be interested to hear how you figure out how many iPhones will be sold and how that amount is valued in your DCF model.

We forecast revenue and usually there is a driver i.e. Backing into iPhone sales for previous quarter year etc. some analysts will use regression models others will use guidance but ultimately it's up to each analyst to come up with their own model.


I didn't pitch Apple I inherited it but I can look into what the analyst did.

The uncertainty is built into one tab where we calculate different costs of equity and then you can address it again in your terminal rate.

 

[jbarwick]

Do you guys use Risk and Uncertainty interchangeably? I always thought risk is easy to put a price on while uncertainty is hard to measure.

 

[OmniscientCause]



Do you guys use Risk and Uncertainty interchangeably?  I always thought risk is easy to put a price on while uncertainty is hard to measure.

You talking systematic risk ? I mean you can't really model that in. We have built in levers for bull vs bear scenarios where different levers are changed but that's the extent of it.