1. Welcome to the new Styleforum!

    We hope you’re as excited as we are to hang out in the new place. There are more new features that we’ll announce in the near future, but for now we hope you’ll enjoy the new site.

    We are currently fine-tuning the forum for your browsing pleasure, so bear with any lingering dust as we work to make Styleforum even more awesome than it was.

    Oh, and don’t forget to head over to the Styleforum Journal, because we’re giving away two pairs of Carmina shoes to celebrate our move!

    Please address any questions about using the new forum to support@styleforum.net

    Cheers,

    The Styleforum Team

    Dismiss Notice

Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

Discussion in 'Business, Careers & Education' started by mikeman, Feb 2, 2011.

  1. brokencycle

    brokencycle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    9,574
    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2008
    Location:
    The Old North State
    Having worked in the IT industry, I can tell you that in places like India, they have all kinds of certifications and tests, except unlike here, their tests tend to be open book and there is rampant cheating.

    Ignoring the visa issue, I can tell you that Indian IT people make like 1/5-1/3 what Americans make (or at least the used to). So basically companies hire people in India and there isn't as much scrutiny because they're so inexpensive.
     
  2. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    We have oversupply, that's why it needs revisiting. And by oversupply, I mean we're absolutely flooded.




    Indeed, the cheating is completely rampant. Secondarily to how much less the H1B crowd makes, it depresses wages across the board for everyone else. And then you have to work with these really unskilled people.


    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31998343

    http://www.latimes.com/world/great-reads/la-fg-c1-india-testing-scam-20150717-story.html


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
  3. brokencycle

    brokencycle Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    9,574
    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2008
    Location:
    The Old North State
    The question is does the H1B change much? My experience is with companies that didn't even bother with H1B and just hired them in India. I know another company that also hired in South America (who were actually pretty good).
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    It changes things big time.

    15 years ago outsourcing was the word of the day and everyone was trying it.

    Its not very common to outsource relationships to be successful, mainly because these folks are unskilled... it's the same people. So if they suck here, they suck there. I've been thru several outsource projects in different roles, they always take forever and have substantial quality issues.

    Outsourcing looks cheap on the surface but it's not too effective. If they fix this H1B problem, you're going to see more outsourcing but the market has been burned by it already so nobody gives big projects overseas like that.

    There are exceptions like Microsoft that has a dev center there, but they are getting IIT grads, not the schleps that cheat their way into the US.

    If you kill the H1B in it's current form you'll get much better IT out of the industry, and you'll motivate people to again seek CS degrees. Depressed wages and this flood of competition has good talent seeking other career paths.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  5. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,172
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2007
    

    Quite the opposite in the tech industry, and by tech industry I mean firms in Silicon Valley. People don't prefer to hire H1-b's (the process is difficult and annoying) but most companies are looking for the best talent and due to the high demand here can't fill up just by hiring citizens. Because the market is so hot there really is not cost savings in hiring H1-b's and it may in fact be more costly due to the immigration related expenses.

    I do think reducing the number of H1-b's will hurt companies here but mostly by limiting the talent pool. That will of course have an impact on wages but for companies like Apple and Google it will have minimal impact on bottom line. For less profitable companies it will be even more difficult to compete for talent than it is now which may lead to more companies being forced to move to cheaper locations where they can compete at the higher end of a smaller local market.

    The IT contracting issue you are talking about is interesting and sounds like limiting H-1b's could have a positive impact there. It's more or less commodity work so I could see how hiring cheaper labor and reselling it at the same cost would help the bottom line but it's not really applicable to most of the talent pool that tech companies are competing for out here.
     
    1 person likes this.
  6. tropics

    tropics Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,199
    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2009
    Location:
    Brooklyn NY / Cork IE
    #teamH1B
    #welliwasabout10yearsago
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  7. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    


    This is uninformed information, you sound like a talking head on CNN. In the real world there is not a lot of talent in that pool.

    I am responsible for a substantial number of engineers, I speak from the perspective of getting worn down with this shit over time. I don't want to bring these low billing rate people in any more, but I don't have complete budgetary control and am forced to because of partnerships formed at the CIO level with sweatshops like Cognizant and ICF. Not everyone is willing to pay the Accenture rates, and these consultant shops subcontract up the wazoo to who knows where. I look at these invoices and it goes 6 companies deep sometimes for some shitbird that sits around on IndiaChat all day asking his buddy over there what inheritance of a class is.

    Silicon Valley is not the front line of this problem. It's places like Omaha, Detroit, Tampa, and Phoenix. Where guys like trying to earn a living getting pushed out of the market thru undercutting. Qualified people that are available to fill the need, and hey are not getting the work. Trying to highlight Silicon Valley is a red herring. Its like trying to compare Manhattan real estate to a small city.

    It may have minimal impact on profits, but remember investors are trading on a multiple of future earnings. It might be small but you're ignoring the ripple.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  8. Piobaire

    Piobaire Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    50,191
    Joined:
    Dec 5, 2006
    Location:
    In My Douchemobile
    

    The law is an ass.
     
  9. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,172
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2007
    

    I think you are the one who brought the red herring. GF was referring to tech and by tech I believe he meant the likes of AAPL, FB, MSFT and others companies that create technology driven products. If I'm wrong and he's actually talking about companies like Infosys I am happy to eat crow.

    I may live in a bubble, but my bubble happens to be the relevant one to this conversation.


    You said it man.
     
  10. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Seems you're struggling so I will break this down for you:

    An exec at GOOG doing projections might see a small effect of losing the low wage H1B guys. But an institutional investor, looking at the broader market, sees a similar impact but calculates the future earnings impact. Say its .2%... at 20x earnings it's a multiple, so 4%, and thus GOOG (or whoever) drops 4% in light if this speculation that the laws will change.

    .2% is a small change. 4% decrease in share price is reflective of that. Understand now?

    The red herring was related to the real impact to IT workers in not so fancied cities related to SV. Removing H1B enables IT workers based in cities like Omaha to re-establish their careers in the places they have families and roots. While its the big players lobbying to increase these numbers every year, the knock on effect is people in less IT-hub places getting flooded with the worst of the H1B people that are willing to relocate anywhere for $25 an hour.

    Pieces of shit like Zuckerberg spend millions lobbying over that .2% and the real impact to the real world is guys in Omaha with small IT footprints getting laid off and replaced by H1B contract guys. This is why Trump was successful because the same things happens everywhere all the time with less highly skilled labor.

    EDIT: let me add, because this topic does irritate me, unfortunately I interview about 80-100 people a year (huge time suck), and I have met many people from small cities looking to relocate because the IT work is gone. It grates on me... people with roots, families, kids, who definitely dont want to leave having to relocate to cities they dont want to be in because H1Bs are taking their jobs. And when I put a rec out, I get 20 resumes, 18 have indian names. And those 20? The headhunter filtered it from 200. There is plenty of supply, trust me.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  11. UnFacconable

    UnFacconable Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,172
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2007
    

    Thanks for confirming that you still don't understand the topic at hand and exposing for everyone how little you understand about financial modeling. This will also be my last attempt to demonstrate that you are hopelessly off topic.

    Let's talk in real numbers that show how little impact H1-bs have on the bottom line of 3 of the largest tech companies, and ones that are most likely what GF was referring to when he asked the question that you used to go off on a relentlessly uninformed tangent.

    Apple employed 1,444 H1-bs in 2015 at $120k per. That's a pretty decent average salary, but let's say they are saving 10% in salary - that's $17 million per year on a pre-tax basis. And by the way, I'm not even conceding that they would have to pay US engineers more and I'm not factoring in the compliance costs of having an H1-b program. In any event, losing any H1-b cost savings is not the reason Apple has dropped 3% ($18B in market cap) in the last few days.

    Google employed 3,025 in 2015 at $125k per. If they had to pay 10% more per year that would be $36 million per year. That's not the reason Goog has dropped 5% ($25B in market cap) in the last few days.

    Facebook only employed 767 in 2015 at $130k per. 10% more would be $10M. That's not the reason FB has dropped 6% ($18B in market cap) in the last few days.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
    1 person likes this.
  12. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    Wow man, you're really digging a hole.

    The biggest players only employ that many on their books. There are countless others that are subcontracted out thru consultant companies like InfoSys who have 24,000 and gets written into their accounting differently, often thru capitalization. Look at how much facebook and others spend on consulting, that's the real spend on H1B. I personally spent 3m on consulting fees last year on just what I oversee, and few H1Bs are on our books in the entire IT department.

    Why does facebook spend so much money lobbying for them then? That's illogical. No company lobbies for H1B unless there is a benefit, and all the big players do it.

    Regarding price moves, are you are not getting the bigger picture: markets overreact and then find their stasis. So AAPL moved 10%, is that a surprise? When TGT dropped 30% over their credit card hack, was that a logical reaction? Then how come I bought and was up 20% within a month or so?

    Otherwise, give me a good reason tech has been down since the election.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  13. MSchapiro

    MSchapiro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,097
    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2011
    Keep in mind H1B isn't only for Tech. My family came over to the USA on an H1B.

    The program could certainly use some streamlining and changes in many aspects, but immigrants are essential in many industries to supplement a lack of domestically produced skilled labor.
     
    1 person likes this.
  14. otc

    otc Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,202
    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2008
    

    Facebook, Apple, and Google hire consultants...but I highly doubt they spend much on IT consultants like Infosys. They use their own engineers for that.

    People contract out to Infosys for mundane IT work. They implement something new in your shitty SAP system, they maintain your sales transaction database, they keep your legacy COBOL programs chugging along. Banks hire them. Manufacturers and retailers hire them to keep the backend alive. Fucking Facebook does not farm out their core business.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
    2 people like this.
  15. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    

    I agree, but overwhelmingly its IT related... 5x ,more than the next space:

    http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/2012-H1B-Visa-Category.aspx?T=IN

    Its basically an IT funnel to US corporations for cheap labor.



    I do not have their numbers in front of me, but having consulted for 20 fortune 100 companies over my first 10 years in my career (including Microsoft) I can tell you that the spend on consultants, in general, is often equal to their payroll for IT.

    People contact infosys for warm bodies. Yes, they do SAP shit, DB shit, and keep COBOL alive, as well as maintain your intranet, A+ work, and things like Siebel and Great Plains. They do that type of shit for Facebook too. Facebook doesn't have an HR system? An intranet? Sure they don't outsource development of their their most critical operations, but the maintenance? You better fucking believe it. You're missing the fact that only 25% of software lifecycle is the development... the other 75% is maintenance and uptime.

    Lastly, companies just don't want W2s on their books. Healthcare, severance, etc. They want the ability to get rid of IT staff as needed depending on the work needed at the time. I had this "conversation" with a CIO about 6 years ago when I flat out asked her why the fuck can't we just hire a few people and stop hiring consultants? You can guess the answer.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  16. idfnl

    idfnl Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,339
    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2008
    Location:
    VA
    Took a position in NWL this morning.
     
  17. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    

    Yes, was referring to the likes of MSFT AMZN GOOG FB AAPL and others that have been getting hit lately.
     
  18. GreenFrog

    GreenFrog Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    14,235
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    I can't comment on the whole H1B thing but my current employer works with IT contract firms that I'm guessing employ a lot of them.

    The quality of talent is a real hit or miss. I keep maintaining that my employer would be better served in terms of quality of code and cost if we just hired some full time software developers instead of dozens and dozens of contractors.

    The company prefers to use contractors so they can ramp up / down hiring very rapidly. Gives them a lot of flexibility, sure, but at a substantial cost to the quality of work that's produced.

    A damn shame.

    I have met and developed great working relationships with some of these contractors though. Thinking of one guy in particular and he was super talented. Naturally, he got axed because his rate was too high.
     
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2016
    1 person likes this.
  19. Master-Classter

    Master-Classter Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    8,463
    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2007
    Location:
    Toronto, Canada
    Bought more SWHC today around 21.5-22
    Bought more HIMX around 6.8
    Bought and sold LULU within a half hour. Bought at 54.5 and sold at 55.5. Made a few bucks, figured why not. Reset my buy to 54.4

    I've got fairly large buy orders on TSLA and GILD if they go down 3-5% from here. Already holding very large positions on these but will add more.
     

Share This Page

Styleforum is proudly sponsored by