Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[chogall]

Perfect time to buy, because you can get twice as much stock for the same amount of money and if you already have a position you can dramatically lower your average entry price.

Almost worthy of @BagholderQuotes.

 

[Master-Classter]

some of my reits have been doing quite well and I've ended up trimming off some shares to take a 10-15% return on a portion. (CLDT, NLY, and STAG)

several of the stocks i'm holding seem to know no lower bounds. AAL and UAL have come down fairly hard. FSLR and SCTY have come down very very hard, particularly the latter. AAPL, NFLX, GILD, etc are all at pretty darn low prices and I've loaded up fairly heavy but can't figure out if it's just the overall market letting off some steam or everyone's got issues and the prices were too high to begin with. Still, I'm comfortable buying a lot at these prices and hope for a solid 15-20% upside within a few months on these. Here's hoping I guess.

CHK holy moly. So an analyst group reaffirms they think it's only worth $1/share and it drops 20% in a day. Someone else (who's short the stock) says SCTY will have financial issues before the year's end and it goes from $34/share a few days ago to now nearly $20. I mean wow is this volatile stuff.

 

[lawyerdad]

Oh, they all have lower bounds.

 

[chogall]

I am short AAPL and NFLX.

AAPL, subsidies gone, replacement cycle lengthens, and the Chinese attacked with better phones at half the price. Both unit sales and margins will be under pressure. Risk to short is central bank buying equities. iPhone7 poses little risk to break the thesis.

NFLX, ARPU - CAC - CRC < $1. ARPU expansion will be offset by increasing CRC as more players going after limited pools of content. Cash flow negative for another few years and need another debt deal or secondary. That should trigger a revaluation event. Risk to short is it being a retail darling/momentum hotel before a revaluation event.

Missed 4Q, stock dumped and reversed to pre-earning levels. Missed 1Q, dumped, and could reverse. How many quarters can NFLX miss, dumped, and reverse?

 

[chogall]

On sidelines for SCTY. Another Musk's genius business, of turning government subsidies into personal wealth.

Larger scale commercial solar makers SUNE and Abengoa both filed bankruptcy. SCTY's retail cousin VSLR in the dumps as their white knight SUNE dies. SCTY can't even sell its 'solar bonds' and Musk had to buy most of them, for the 3rd time, with SpaceX money (government subsidies).

Musk needs more people drinking his kool-aid for either more government subsidies/prepayments or Musk fan club buying SCTY debts.

 

[Master-Classter]

Have heard some of those arguments before and I do understand the perspective. I guess it just seems a bit pessimistic and conspiracy theory-ish but I do take not of it. Hmmm, some food for thought. Thanks.

 

[chogall]

Have heard some of those arguments before and I do understand the perspective. I guess it just seems a bit pessimistic and conspiracy theory-ish but I do take not of it. Hmmm, some food for thought. Thanks.

My previous two posts are facts, excluding the claim of Musk needs more people drinking his koolaids. Or if I missed anything, please point out which part of my arguments is pessimistic or conspiracy theory-ish. Always looking to remove sentiment from my arguments.

An example of investment rationale pessimism/conspiracy theory-ish/tin-foil hat,

Claim:
Cord-cutting is going to destroy cable companies, everyone is gonna drop expensive cable subscriptions and Netflix and chill.

Facts:
Comcast total subscriber count is 27070k in Q1'16, up from 26801k in Q1'14; ARPU is $146.15 last Q, up from $134.10 in Q1'14.
Time Warner total subscriber count is 16130k in Q1'16, up from 15169k in Q1'14; ARPU is $129.06 last Q, up from $123.47 in Q1'14.

 

[venividivicibj]

I like feisty chogall. It's almost like DWF was in here

 

[otc]



My previous two posts are facts, excluding the claim of Musk needs more people drinking his koolaids.  Or if I missed anything, please point out which part of my arguments is pessimistic or conspiracy theory-ish.  Always looking to remove sentiment from my arguments.

An example of investment rationale pessimism/conspiracy theory-ish/tin-foil hat,

Claim:
   Cord-cutting is going to destroy cable companies, everyone is gonna drop expensive cable subscriptions and Netflix and chill.

Facts:
   Comcast total subscriber count is 27070k in Q1'16, up from 26801k in Q1'14; ARPU is $146.15 last Q, up from $134.10 in Q1'14.
   Time Warner total subscriber count is 16130k in Q1'16, up from 15169k in Q1'14; ARPU is $129.06 last Q, up from $123.47 in Q1'14.

are those subscriber counts for video or overall?

Because even with netflix, I still need comcast for internet service.

In fact, they convinced me to sign up for a promo package that doubled my data and included some TV...but I've never even plugged the cable box in. So I guess I would show up either way, but they aren't ever going to make a bunch of money off showing me content.

 

[ellsbebc]



are those subscriber counts for video or overall?

Because even with netflix, I still need comcast for internet service.

In fact, they convinced me to sign up for a promo package that doubled my data and included some TV...but I've never even plugged the cable box in. So I guess I would show up either way, but they aren't ever going to make a bunch of money off showing me content.

Comcast and Time Warner both reported an increase in video subscribers. I cannot confirm if @chogall's figures are video only or all subscribers.

Charter Communications is scheduled to acquire both Brighthouse Networks and Time Warner in the next couple months. Believe it is mere formality as they wait for final approvals. I have no vested interest in the stock performance but I'm intrigued as to how this will shake up the market because it will impact my job and employer. The three big entities will be AT&T, Charter, and Comcast.

 

[chogall]

are those subscriber counts for video or overall?

Because even with netflix, I still need comcast for internet service.

In fact, they convinced me to sign up for a promo package that doubled my data and included some TV...but I've never even plugged the cable box in. So I guess I would show up either way, but they aren't ever going to make a bunch of money off showing me content.

Overall "Customer Relationships". The usual KPI they reports are: Customer Relationships, Video Customer, Internet Customers, Voice Customers, and customers who bought single/double/triple products with them. Also sometimes they report penetration and reach. Subscribers has been increasing across the board.

They probably still charges Netflix for peering at data centers, but Netflix probably found ways to minimize those costs w/ their own CDN.

 

[chogall]

.

 

[GreenFrog]

chogall Munger

 

[chrisjr]

Chogall - how do you account for risk of NFLX as an M&A target?

 

[lawyerdad]

Huge buying opportunity on Lumber Liquidators.