The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[BLAUGRANA]

Very curious to see where prices go. I'm not entirely sold that some of the popular steel Rolex models will drop that much. Of course I wasn't buying watches like that in 08-09 so I'm just speculating. That said I'm expecting some really notable drops in some other nice watches that are already below MSRP. I think plenty of brands that make some great watches which are just not as popular at the moment will be had for bargain prices compared to what we're seeing today.

I decided that I wanted to realign my collection a few weeks back due to a combination of something incoming in April and wanting to lighten the overall "investment" a bit. I sold the two watches (a Rolex OP39 and a PAM without B&P) I wanted to pretty quickly for basically my asking price.

I'm quite happy about the timing of my decision as now I already have the cash freed up for when my watch arrives in April and was also able to pounce on a good deal for something preowned. I think if I tried to sell both now I would still have managed well enough, but it has definitely eased my mind to have already done so.

Congratulations. I was considering selling a few watches just to cull the herd a bit. I didn't put them out there at all though. The Geophysic was seeing big asks from grey dealers, but most grey dealers had them. The FOIS was readily being sold for more than I paid. I assume I'd have at worst broke even on both of those watches. The '57 Speedmaster was going for less than MSRP and I'd have taken a bit of a hit on that one. All of that said, I still love all the watches and am fine holding on to them. In fact I'm not looking to sell anything at the moment. I actually wore the Geophysic the other day for the first time in a bit as I'd been rotating some newer pieces more and I was in love all over again. Can't think of a piece that fits my wrist so well. Again, I'd just be selling to reduce the collection a bit even though I still love the watches. They'll all be getting plenty of wear once I leave the house again.

I think it's the ripple effects that will really bring the market down. Buyers know a recession is already here. Thus, even if you were beyond wealthy, there is no logical reason to buy now when the reasonable expectation is that the market will crash soon enough.

Also, the supply is actually fairly large if you look at how many listings for the most popular watches there are. We know flippers and grey dealers horded popular watches, which contributed to the shortages in the past few years. As the money crunch becomes painful, it will only take one of the big grey dealers breaking from the pack and trying to unload stock before the rest do so as well. Staff,rent, bills still need to be paid.

Very curious to see "who" and "when" from the bolded statement.

I wouldn't feel too bad. These are luxury watches we are talking about, not food or medicine.

The price will surely come down soon enough. I don't know what the bottom will be, but I'd make an educated guess below MSRP for sure.

I assume you mean MSRP of a new Sub from an AD today and not MSRP of an actual Kermit.

 

[alpyigit]

While past data are not necessarily precise indicators of future price movements, happy to share some of the purchase experiences during the last market dislocation and its aftermath, between 2008-2011.

I bought watches with c60% discount (Piaget), multiple JLCs with 50% off, even an AP Jumbo 15% discount. (and, yes, it was a walk in purchase - saw in the AD display while killing time before my flight, named my price and got it). Did I mention that I was offered a 10% discount for 5711 in HK? How about an AP 15300 for USD 9200 vs USD 14000 MSRP? So on and so forth!

Admittedly, there was no instagram then, which, in my opinion, single handedly pumped the demand for the steel sport watches. And it is likely to stay at elevated levels, historically speaking. Should the global sell off continue, pretty much impacting all asset classes, I really expect the not so instagram popular watches to take a big hit, especially the precious metal models.

 

[pmeis]

Congratulations. I was considering selling a few watches just to cull the herd a bit. I didn't put them out there at all though. The Geophysic was seeing big asks from grey dealers, but most grey dealers had them. The FOIS was readily being sold for more than I paid. I assume I'd have at worst broke even on both of those watches. The '57 Speedmaster was going for less than MSRP and I'd have taken a bit of a hit on that one. All of that said, I still love all the watches and am fine holding on to them. In fact I'm not looking to sell anything at the moment. I actually wore the Geophysic the other day for the first time in a bit as I'd been rotating some newer pieces more and I was in love all over again. Can't think of a piece that fits my wrist so well. Again, I'd just be selling to reduce the collection a bit even though I still love the watches. They'll all be getting plenty of wear once I leave the house again.

Funnily enough, the Geophysic was something I had given considerable thought towards consolidating too.

 

[WSW]

I assume you mean MSRP of a new Sub from an AD today and not MSRP of an actual Kermit.

The Hulk at $9,350 right now. The Kermit's price is linked to it and I think the Hulk will fall back down to MSRP, with the Kermit about $1K or so below.

 

[Texasmade]

I bought watches with c60% discount (Piaget), multiple JLCs with 50% off, even an AP Jumbo 15% discount. (and, yes, it was a walk in purchase - saw in the AD display while killing time before my flight, named my price and got it). Did I mention that I was offered a 10% discount for 5711 in HK? How about an AP 15300 for USD 9200 vs USD 14000 MSRP? So on and so forth!

In 2016, getting a discount on a jumbo or 5711 was sort of normal. This over MSRP is fairly new and didn't really start until 2017.

 

[BLAUGRANA]

Funnily enough, the Geophysic was something I had given considerable thought towards consolidating too.

While the main thought was to just shrink down the collection, I also considered the fact that they aren't that hard to come buy despite being a somewhat subjectively rare watch.

The Hulk at $9,350 right now. The Kermit's price is linked to it and I think the Hulk will fall back down to MSRP, with the Kermit about $1K or so below.

That's what I thought you meant, but wanted to be sure.

 

[giuseppe]

I would like to add a detail. The current resale prices are not normal, normal is the list price.
If we speculate on a product, the market regulates the price.

 

[Belligero]

I'm hunting the Kermit right now. Lowest price on C24 is still over $10K. I hate to sound like a vulture scavenging a dead body, but I am waiting for the price to fall below $9K before even considering a purchase.

Chrono24 pricing tends to be pretty optimistic. Get the watchrecon app and set up a notification for 16610LV listings instead.

 

[Omega Male]

Gonna keep an eye on yellow gold Zenith Daytonas if the bottom does fall out of the vintage market.

 

[rnguy001]

arrived today. traded my DSSD for it, and so far extremely happy. Made my shift in the ED go a lot quicker. Be safe out there fellas.

 

[Neville Southall]

Let the world ******* end.

 

[Omega Male]

But which watch to select for the Apocalypse?

 

[Scuppers]

But which watch to select for the Apocalypse?

Easy, a g-shock!

 

[Phileas Fogg]

All this talk of the apocalypse does make a perpetual calendar sound useless, no?

 

[giuseppe]

Preparet for the apocalypse.