The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[Kaplan]

A pic from the happier before-times, just a few short weeks ago, from Trou aux Biches in Mauritius:

- the trusty sub in its 29th year of being a valued travel companion, here on a tropical strap (by Eulit).

Returned back home about a week ago, 3 hours before my country closed its borders.

 

[Thin White Duke]

With many people saying there is a very strong chance of us going into a global recession I don't see the halt of production keep prices pumped up, unless the production halt were to last several months or longer.

In the last global recession, it became a buyer's market. Back then it really took about 8 months to year to see changes in watch pricing an supply. Back in 2009 my Dad was able to negotiate with an AD for a 5% discount on a new steel Daytona, at a place he had never purchased anything. I was also offered a new steel Daytona at another AD I had never done business with, but I was in their because Mrs. Dino wanted to see what they had for jewelry. Granted, those are just past experiences, but I've already heard of a lot of very successful people being laid off, who are very concerned about when they will be working again, and they are very worried about how long they can pay their mortgage and other family related expenses. I also know guys who were talking about getting relatively nice new cars this year who have not lost their jobs, but who have now put the new cars on hold due to the uncertainty of what is happening in the world. Sure there are people who can still afford to buy whatever they want regardless of the economy. However, I think many steel Rolex buyers are not that insulated from the economy. They do well enough to buy some nice things, but if they lose their jobs, they won't be buying a steel Daytona, GMT or Sub. For now, it is still far too early to see any major changes in prices or availability, but lets see where things are in 8 months to a year.

Interesting stuff Dino - bookmark this page for early next year and we can see how things are shaking out. If current events move me up the waiting list for that GMT I’ll be sure to announce it on here! The world as we know it in crisis freefall but at least I get my hands on a Pepsi. Every cloud eh?

 

[pmeis]

I decided that I wanted to realign my collection a few weeks back due to a combination of something incoming in April and wanting to lighten the overall "investment" a bit. I sold the two watches (a Rolex OP39 and a PAM without B&P) I wanted to pretty quickly for basically my asking price.

I'm quite happy about the timing of my decision as now I already have the cash freed up for when my watch arrives in April and was also able to pounce on a good deal for something preowned. I think if I tried to sell both now I would still have managed well enough, but it has definitely eased my mind to have already done so.

 

[am55]

With many people saying there is a very strong chance of us going into a global recession I don't see the halt of production keep prices pumped up, unless the production halt were to last several months or longer.

In the last global recession, it became a buyer's market. Back then it really took about 8 months to year to see changes in watch pricing an supply. Back in 2009 my Dad was able to negotiate with an AD for a 5% discount on a new steel Daytona, at a place he had never purchased anything. I was also offered a new steel Daytona at another AD I had never done business with, but I was in their because Mrs. Dino wanted to see what they had for jewelry. Granted, those are just past experiences, but I've already heard of a lot of very successful people being laid off, who are very concerned about when they will be working again, and they are very worried about how long they can pay their mortgage and other family related expenses. I also know guys who were talking about getting relatively nice new cars this year who have not lost their jobs, but who have now put the new cars on hold due to the uncertainty of what is happening in the world. Sure there are people who can still afford to buy whatever they want regardless of the economy. However, I think many steel Rolex buyers are not that insulated from the economy. They do well enough to buy some nice things, but if they lose their jobs, they won't be buying a steel Daytona, GMT or Sub. For now, it is still far too early to see any major changes in prices or availability, but lets see where things are in 8 months to a year.

What do you remember of the impact on independents post-2008? Might we see Asaokas on C24?

 

[giuseppe]

With many people saying there is a very strong chance of us going into a global recession I don't see the halt of production keep prices pumped up, unless the production halt were to last several months or longer.

In the last global recession, it became a buyer's market. Back then it really took about 8 months to year to see changes in watch pricing an supply. Back in 2009 my Dad was able to negotiate with an AD for a 5% discount on a new steel Daytona, at a place he had never purchased anything. I was also offered a new steel Daytona at another AD I had never done business with, but I was in their because Mrs. Dino wanted to see what they had for jewelry. Granted, those are just past experiences, but I've already heard of a lot of very successful people being laid off, who are very concerned about when they will be working again, and they are very worried about how long they can pay their mortgage and other family related expenses. I also know guys who were talking about getting relatively nice new cars this year who have not lost their jobs, but who have now put the new cars on hold due to the uncertainty of what is happening in the world. Sure there are people who can still afford to buy whatever they want regardless of the economy. However, I think many steel Rolex buyers are not that insulated from the economy. They do well enough to buy some nice things, but if they lose their jobs, they won't be buying a steel Daytona, GMT or Sub. For now, it is still far too early to see any major changes in prices or availability, but lets see where things are in 8 months to a year.

n my case I also bought Daytona at a discount ... now I want to buy a Rolex, as I do not want to enter the speculation of recent years, I do not have my watch.
Buyers will no longer see their investment safe, and my Rolex will come out at the price it should be, for sure.
Greetings.

P.S. In 1995, the price was paid 3 times for resale for a Daytona.

 

[Dino944]

If I remember correctly Tim Mosso predicts watch and exotic car prices will come down to a price leve like never before.

Same thing happened around 2008/2009. Lots of people buy and live an credit. Credit dried up, and a lot of would be buyers bailed on their orders be for cars and/or watches.

What do you remember of the impact on independents post-2008? Might we see Asaokas on C24?

I don't think the market was particularly strong on independents in terms of resale prior to '08, so it wasn't as though there was a crash from strong prices. Remember, back in the early 2000s F.P. Journe had a lousy reputation for reliability and expensive service costs. Recently pricing has been strong on certain F.P. Journes, but will things stay that way? It is hard to say. Are their buyers and buyers of other independents insulated enough that a global recession won't matter to them? I don't know. If it is a piece such as a $130K JDN tourbillon, well something like that is very specialized. I'm not sure the pre-owned price would be especially strong. These are very low production, rare pieces, but rare and having a demand that will command and maintain strong resale prices are 2 separate things. Buyers of some very specialized products often want their own dream watch (or car...one reason Rolls and Bentley's generally have serious depreciation). They want the experience of ordering it and customization and interacting with the craftsmen or dealer. If they are buying someone else's dream item, it has to be a significant discount to make it worth their while (I've often called this Rolls Royce syndrome). It will be interesting to see if this very likely global recession is similar or worse than that of '08 and how it affects pricing and supply of various goods, particularly those that people do not need.

 

[Dino944]

P.S. In 1995, the price was paid 3 times for resale for a Daytona.

That may have been in your market if you are outside the US. Here in the US, in 1995/96 the mark up was more commonly 50% to 100% over the MSRP. I was shopping for them back then, and eventually lucked out and bought both dial color Daytonas from ADs at MSRP, just a few months apart in 1996. I walked out of a lot of shops asking for over MSRP. The biggest mark up I saw was at a big name shop in NYC, and their mark up was about 117% over MSRP.

 

[Omega Male]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-as-watchmakers-prepare-for-worst-year-ever?

Ugly.

 

[giuseppe]

That may have been in your market if you are outside the US. Here in the US, in 1995/96 the mark up was more commonly 50% to 100% over the MSRP. I was shopping for them back then, and eventually lucked out and bought both dial color Daytonas from ADs at MSRP, just a few months apart in 1996. I walked out of a lot of shops asking for over MSRP. The biggest mark up I saw was at a big name shop in NYC, and their mark up was about 117% over MSRP.

My comment was for the price that the Daytonas have today, it had already been seen.
I don't like to see your private investments go down ... but some arrogant merchant will have to sell in this crisis.

 

[WSW]

My comment was for the price that the Daytonas have today, it had already been seen.
I don't like to see your private investments go down ... but some arrogant merchant will have to sell in this crisis.

I think it's the ripple effects that will really bring the market down. Buyers know a recession is already here. Thus, even if you were beyond wealthy, there is no logical reason to buy now when the reasonable expectation is that the market will crash soon enough.

Also, the supply is actually fairly large if you look at how many listings for the most popular watches there are. We know flippers and grey dealers horded popular watches, which contributed to the shortages in the past few years. As the money crunch becomes painful, it will only take one of the big grey dealers breaking from the pack and trying to unload stock before the rest do so as well. Staff,rent, bills still need to be paid.

 

[Belligero]

Market's already coming down. Seeing some blue-chip watches listed locally for 30% below what they would have even a few weeks ago, and more like 40%+ when you consider that the currency has taken a nosedive too.

Case in point: 16610LV Sub full set from 2008 in pretty nice condition for 8400 USD equivalent. That would easily have sold for 15K in January or February, and probably closer to 20 considering that the region's used market is normally on the high side.

An outlier for sure, but obviously someone really wants cash now.

 

[Ambulance Chaser]

I'm hunting the Kermit right now. Lowest price on C24 is still over $10K. I hate to sound like a vulture scavenging a dead body, but I am waiting for the price to fall below $9K before even considering a purchase.

 

[WSW]

I'm hunting the Kermit right now. Lowest price on C24 is still over $10K. I hate to sound like a vulture scavenging a dead body, but I am waiting for the price to fall below $9K before even considering a purchase.

I wouldn't feel too bad. These are luxury watches we are talking about, not food or medicine.

The price will surely come down soon enough. I don't know what the bottom will be, but I'd make an educated guess below MSRP for sure.

 

[Belligero]

Yeah, we'll see what happens. On the other end of the scale, there's a 2003 LV out there that's just been "reduced" to 36K.

 

[giuseppe]

I'm hunting the Kermit right now. Lowest price on C24 is still over $10K. I hate to sound like a vulture scavenging a dead body, but I am waiting for the price to fall below $9K before even considering a purchase.

Don't be in a hurry, there are many. I am in one of the areas of maximum danger from the virus, and this is a disaster.