Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[UnFacconable]

First decade in the 2000s US equities (large cap growth) did poorly. The last 10 years US outperformed.

Thoughts on the next decade (US tech will maintain its dominance--all ships will rise with the tide e.g., energy and infrastructure spending)? Or will we see a mean reversion instead?

Yes.

People may have views but I think it would be foolish to take action on it. VTI and/or S&P500 is likely to beat any portfolio that is tilted away from them. Hedge fund dudes spend all day long with a lot of resources at their disposal and very rarely can reliably beat the market just by investing in public securities so I doubt that there is some simple secret to unlock excess gains.

US equities have a lot of exposure to international markets so to the extent the US economy were to lag, that doesn’t necessarily mean US stocks would lag. But they could.

You have to decide what risks you are willing to take.

 

[the shah]

Sad day for short sellers across the world

A Personal Note From Our Founder – Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

 

[javyn]

The future of finance is hear

 

[gettoasty]

This is throwing me for a loop

Roth 401k vs Pretax 401k, unless your future marginal tax rate drops significantly, Roth 401k seems to produce more wealth inclusive of tax. Say 37% vs 22% i.e., a household will need to drop several rungs down. My initial thought is this calculator is looking at someone's lifetime in a linear manner or strictly growth and taxes. Factoring in spending and RMD?

Roth after-tax vs. Traditional pre-tax calculator

Weigh the difference in contributing to a traditional pre-tax or a Roth after-tax account. Use this calculator to help determine the best option for your retirment.

www.corebridgefinancial.com

Edit:
The assumed reinvesting tax-savings at 7% LT return completely excludes other utility e.g., second home, kids, etc. ?? No other cash flow considerations. Calculator is helpful to look at things financially per se but otherwise one dimensional it seems.

 

[double00]

This is throwing me for a loop

Roth 401k vs Pretax 401k, unless your future marginal tax rate drops significantly, Roth 401k seems to produce more wealth inclusive of tax. Say 37% vs 22% i.e., a household will need to drop several rungs down. My initial thought is this calculator is looking at someone's lifetime in a linear manner or strictly growth and taxes. Factoring in spending and RMD?

Roth after-tax vs. Traditional pre-tax calculator

Weigh the difference in contributing to a traditional pre-tax or a Roth after-tax account. Use this calculator to help determine the best option for your retirment.

www.corebridgefinancial.com

Edit:
The assumed reinvesting tax-savings at 7% LT return completely excludes other utility e.g., second home, kids, etc. ?? No other cash flow considerations. Calculator is helpful to look at things financially per se but otherwise one dimensional it seems.

that's like the whole feature of the Roth platform imho , the vehicle represents a revenue loss to the gov't .

i remember when Roth IRA came out they had pretty low limits on contributions , iirc the revenue loss issue was why .

somebody else can weigh in on the math but I always figured it as a limited cherry for taxpayers

 

[venividivicibj]

This is throwing me for a loop

Roth 401k vs Pretax 401k, unless your future marginal tax rate drops significantly, Roth 401k seems to produce more wealth inclusive of tax. Say 37% vs 22% i.e., a household will need to drop several rungs down. My initial thought is this calculator is looking at someone's lifetime in a linear manner or strictly growth and taxes. Factoring in spending and RMD?

Roth after-tax vs. Traditional pre-tax calculator

Weigh the difference in contributing to a traditional pre-tax or a Roth after-tax account. Use this calculator to help determine the best option for your retirment.

www.corebridgefinancial.com

Edit:
The assumed reinvesting tax-savings at 7% LT return completely excludes other utility e.g., second home, kids, etc. ?? No other cash flow considerations. Calculator is helpful to look at things financially per se but otherwise one dimensional it seems.

Sometimes people can work part time late in life? Would be a great time to convert IRA-->Roth when at very low/marginal tax brackets. But yes, I think generally, you're right.

It is good to have both Roth and Pretax though, so you can kind of finagle tax brackets when combining both incomes in retirement, leading you to take home lots of money with very little tax implications.

 

[Piobaire]

Sometimes people can work part time late in life? Would be a great time to convert IRA-->Roth when at very low/marginal tax brackets. But yes, I think generally, you're right.

It is good to have both Roth and Pretax though, so you can kind of finagle tax brackets when combining both incomes in retirement, leading you to take home lots of money with very little tax implications.

Not sure you can finagle things like that. I think there’s proportional assumptions concerning withdrawal, i.e. your withdrawals in a year will be assumed to consist of the proportions of your entire portfolio.

 

[Hombre Secreto]

that's like the whole feature of the Roth platform imho , the vehicle represents a revenue loss to the gov't .

i remember when Roth IRA came out they had pretty low limits on contributions , iirc the revenue loss issue was why .

somebody else can weigh in on the math but I always figured it as a limited cherry for taxpayers

For non-business folks wouldn't it be better to put REIT stocks that won't be penalized with dividends being taxed?

 

[jbarwick]

We have a few hundred K in Trad IRAs so we would have a big tax bill if we converted. I could probably talk to a professional about it but I am not really worried too much about the tax on my small nest egg.