Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[ValidusLA]

Oof. That report sure looked like a recession indicator.

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Anyone up for a lost decade?

Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller warns there is a “high probability” the stock market will be “flat” for an entire decade

Central banks are like “reformed smokers,” famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller says. “They’ve gone from printing a bunch of money, like driving a Porsche at 200 miles an hour, to not only taking the foot off the gas, but just slamming the brakes on.”

fortune.com

Lost decade is exactly what I think is coming. I'm 36 so I'll just invest and wait, but I feel and for people retiring now. My dad just retired this year, and he's def thinking of un retiring.

 

[ValidusLA]

Following up on that, I have a friend who doesn't really work, just invests. He has done exceedingly well last few years, including being up something like 30% this year.
Very much a bear, and I think too bearish in general, but has some asymetric plays that have worked out well for him. Following some of his advice has kept my way better than the market this year (though still at a loss).

He said something last week on our group discord that I very much jive with. The paraphrase being something like:

"I think the next decade's path to wealth for our generation won't be the market. It will be buying small businesses from boomers or starting ones in holes left by closed down ones.
Market has been easy money for too long, people didn't want to deal with doing actual work or building actual companies.
If people want to get rich they might have to do work again."

 

[Texasmade]

Who else is excited for the Porsche IPO?!

This will be the triumph of unbridled fanboyism over corporate governance, macroeconomic, and shareholding voting rights red flags, amirite!!

I'm hoping Porsche will succumb to shareholder pressure and start producing a bunch more GT3's and GT4's.

 

[Texasmade]

He said something last week on our group discord that I very much jive with. The paraphrase being something like:

"I think the next decade's path to wealth for our generation won't be the market. It will be buying small businesses from boomers or starting ones in holes left by closed down ones.
Market has been easy money for too long, people didn't want to deal with doing actual work or building actual companies.
If people want to get rich they might have to do work again."

I can't wait to invest in those businesses!

 

[jcman311]

I'm hoping Porsche will succumb to shareholder pressure and start producing a bunch more less peak GT3's and GT4's.

Fixed.

 

[concealed]

When does this flow through into lower RE prices? I keep losing to bidders over asking waiving all contingencies… still

 

[ValidusLA]

When does this flow through into lower RE prices? I keep losing to bidders over asking waiving all contingencies… still

A lot of markets are dropping already. Depending where you are might be slower (if at all).

Metro CA seems to be sticky. Partly because our property tax structure incentivizes people to hold onto homes, so people are more stubborn about their selling prices.

 

[concealed]

A lot of markets are dropping already. Depending where you are might be slower (if at all).

Metro CA seems to be sticky. Partly because our property tax structure incentivizes people to hold onto homes, so people are more stubborn about their selling prices.

Suburban Boston

 

[Omega Male]

 

[nootje]

If the best year that strategy worked is 2008, I guess there is some reason to be worried.

 

[Piobaire]

"I think the next decade's path to wealth for our generation won't be the market. It will be buying small businesses from boomers or starting ones in holes left by closed down ones.
Market has been easy money for too long, people didn't want to deal with doing actual work or building actual companies.
If people want to get rich they might have to do work again."

Pretty sure Jason Robards gave a speech just like that to Buddy in Wall St.

 

[Omega Male]

 

[brokencycle]

Why is it nonsense? Rate increases so far haven't increased unemployment and labor force participation is going up as boomers have been unretiring.

 

[Omega Male]

Why is it nonsense? Rate increases so far haven't increased unemployment and labor force participation is going up as boomers have been unretiring.

Because there has never been a previous instance where increasing rates by the amount the Fed is projecting has not led to a far larger rise in unemployment than the Fed is also projecting? This time may be different for some specific reason or other but that's a pretty big assumption to make. Also remember there is a considerable lag between the policy action and the effect on the real economy.

 

[PhilKenSebben]

Because there has never been a previous instance

So you are saying there is a chance?