Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[wsupjs]

I'd hold FCX for the long term. I think they'll be okay.

GPRO is dicey. I don't believe in the product and I'm iffy on mgmt. They could be an acquisition target, but even then I wonder who would buy them.

I think they're heavily oversold, however, and would expect to see a nice bounce within a couple weeks. Might offload then.

Their December quarter is down ~31% Y/Y. Negative 31% Y/Y growth for a supposedly high growth company. And it won't be able to prove itself as a growth company until this time next year, with their ~45% December quarter sales weighting, in my humble opinion.

I could say a lot of negative things about the company, but it has ~$3.5/share cash and someone crazy might rescue and buy out this rich boy's toy company.

I feel the same way about FCX. While it stings now, I think it'll be worthwhile in the long term.

GPRO is a much bigger concern. They're such a conflicted business. Sales are down and management is suspect, while P/E, EBITDA, Cash, and lack of debt are really strong. It's without question they're oversold, but who knows if or when the market will allow it to recover. Hopefully we can get some pop or an acquisition, so I can get near breakeven and cash out.

 

[GreenFrog]



I feel the same way about FCX. While it stings now, I think it'll be worthwhile in the long term.

GPRO is a much bigger concern. They're such a conflicted business. Sales are down and management is suspect, while P/E, EBITDA, Cash, and lack of debt are really strong. It's without question they're oversold, but who knows if or when the market will allow it to recover. Hopefully we can get some pop or an acquisition, so I can get near breakeven and cash out.

It's very unnerving to see FCX where it is. I bought a very small amount back in late September after I heard Icahn established a stake. I think it was around $11 or $12 cost basis wise. I ended up being down roughly 15-20% for a couple weeks and it ended up recovering to around $13, at which j sold my stake. Made very little money but I pretty much sold at the top since then.

As for GoPro, I just don't believe in the product. It's such a commodity and they failed to establish a strong online media sharing platform as they had planned. Also, seeing Woodman peddling his goods on QVC? That's a red flag if I've ever seen one.

Maybe they'll make a dent in the drones market, but drones will be highly regulated so who knows how big the consumer market is there. VR / AR could be a potential with them too but I can't see them having any offerings better than Oculus, Vive, or HoloLens.

I'd dump my position on the next big bounce.

 

[djblisk]

I am eating major **** on UA. Bought in at $87

 

[jbarwick]

You guys really need to set some loss limits and take the emotion out of a **** pick. The only time I really lost my **** was when a company filed bankruptcy but it was speculative day trading anyway. If something drops 10%, limit your losses instead of buying down and adding to the horror.

 

[lawyerdad]



You guys really need to set some loss limits and take the emotion out of a **** pick.  The only time I really lost my **** was when a company filed bankruptcy but it was speculative day trading anyway.  If something drops 10%, limit your losses instead of buying down and adding to the horror.  

There's arguably some tension between "taking the emotion out" and loss limits. Loss limits are about getting scared by arbitrary numbers and ensuring you buy high and sell low. Share prices will fluctuate day to day and week to week, especially in a crazy market like this one. Unless something other than short-term market sentiment has changed, that stock you bought at $100 because you thought it was advantageously priced is even more advantageously priced at $90. That doesn't mean you double down, of course. Getting hung up on where the current share price is relative to where you bought the stock, as opposed to what you think the fair value is, makes very little sense unless you're a short-term trader.

 

[GreenFrog]

^ agreed.

I would have sold AAPL if I implemented a strict stop loss rule and eaten a nasty loss by now, when I still believe in the fundamentals of the company.

 

[chrisjr]

Any of you guys selling into today's strength to shore up cash reserves?

 

[chogall]

You guys really need to set some loss limits and take the emotion out of a **** pick. The only time I really lost my **** was when a company filed bankruptcy but it was speculative day trading anyway. If something drops 10%, limit your losses instead of buying down and adding to the horror.

Setting stop loss or trailing stop is a ******* art form. Day, swing, or long term traders all have different criterion, i.e., 5min day, previous day high/low for swing, 10/50/200 sma, multiples of average variance, entry, etc.

Never dollar cost averaging down unless you are 1000% sure what you are doing on the long side. Always press shorts as the right position get smaller.

Also, stop loss orders will get hammered in large reversal days, i.e., today or the day of down opening down 1,000 points last year.

There's arguably some tension between "taking the emotion out" and loss limits. Loss limits are about getting scared by arbitrary numbers and ensuring you buy high and sell low. Share prices will fluctuate day to day and week to week, especially in a crazy market like this one. Unless something other than short-term market sentiment has changed, that stock you bought at $100 because you thought it was advantageously priced is even more advantageously priced at $90. That doesn't mean you double down, of course. Getting hung up on where the current share price is relative to where you bought the stock, as opposed to what you think the fair value is, makes very little sense unless you're a short-term trader.

Stop loss/trailing stop don't have to be arbitrary but a previously tested/backtested precise number factoring risk tolerance.

 

[GreenFrog]

I'm still holding tight on my positions. It's still too volatile for my tastes to be making buying / selling decisions.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

I think loss limits are bad for long term investing. Ive held through worse, I have XOM I paid $57 for in 2010, when I started buying it it was $65-$68.

I have bought WFC at $21, $14, $10, and sat there through $7/sh wondering if the world had gone mad.....loss limits would have killed that position.

 

[chogall]

I think loss limits are bad for long term investing. Ive held through worse, I have XOM I paid $57 for in 2010, when I started buying it it was $65-$68.

I have bought WFC at $21, $14, $10, and sat there through $7/sh wondering if the world had gone mad.....loss limits would have killed that position.

And if you own FNMA, BXMT, BSC, LEH, you be losing everything! It could be argued both ways, especially if your WFC long got stopped out at $18, and then you added back at $7. That's $11/share saved.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

True, there are many ways to look at it. I mostly avoid stop losses since I cant always hover over my portfolio.

 

[jbarwick]

I understand the arguments against stops here for long term investing but was anyone planning on holding GPRO long term?

 

[chogall]

In the long term, we are all dead.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

Apologies fellas, i didnt think we were talking about just GoPro.

So, strike my comments with regard to that.