Could rising gas prices kill the suburbs?

[Bradford]

Originally Posted by Flagrant

No. Will never happen. For perspective, consider these numbers:

20,000 Above-average miles driven per year (Average is 15,000)
/20 Slightly below average gas mileage
-------
1000 Number of gallons of gas purchased per year

$1000 Additional fuel costs/year if gas prices increase to $4/gal
-or-
$2000 Additional fuel costs/year if gas prices increase to $5/gal

Most cities large enough to have suburbs that would be far enough away to be an issue, have downtown real-estate that costs roughly double what it would cost in the 'burbs. In other words, if 2,000 sq ft in the burbs cost $200,000, then the same metropolitan area would charge approx $400,000 for a comparable downtown home.

So one could move downtown to save $1-2K/yr, while paying an extra $30K/yr in mortgage payments?? Nope. I just don't see it.

I will second this point. The problem with moving closer in to most city centers is the steep rise in the cost of housing more than offsets the gas savings.

Here in Arizona, developers use the phrase, "drive until you qualify" meaning that the further people go from town, the more likely they are to qualify for a loan to buy that new house. As the fastest growing metropolitan area in the nation, Phoenix is currently expanding much like Los Angeles has historically and people are buying in new developments located further and further from the city center.

Rising gas prices won't kill the suburbs, rather they will just cause a decline in the rate of home ownership which unfortunately means that the American dream of owning a home will be delayed for many and cause many to miss out on the single-greatest investment they can make - a home.

 

[JBZ]

Originally Posted by Bradford

I will second this point. The problem with moving closer in to most city centers is the steep rise in the cost of housing more than offsets the gas savings.

Here in Arizona, developers use the phrase, "drive until you qualify" meaning that the further people go from town, the more likely they are to qualify for a loan to buy that new house. As the fastest growing metropolitan area in the nation, Phoenix is currently expanding much like Los Angeles has historically and people are buying in new developments located further and further from the city center.

Rising gas prices won't kill the suburbs, rather they will just cause a decline in the rate of home ownership which unfortunately means that the American dream of owning a home will be delayed for many and cause many to miss out on the single-greatest investment they can make - a home.

I will third this point. Just about all of the new apartments or condos being put into Hartford right now are very expensive to rent or buy. No one's moving there with the thought, "now I'll save so much on gas."

I think what is more likely to happen is that we'll start buying cars with better and better gas mileage and, hopefully at some point, start looking into alternate fuel sources (or alternate fuel source locations) in earnest.

 

[j]

Unless you can move downtown and rarely have to drive at all, thus eliminating not only the gas increase but the gas expense altogether (perhaps just for one car) and the payments and insurance and maintenance on that car... Unfortunately this is not possible with the state of "public transportation" in many major cities.

 

[chorse123]

Originally Posted by j

Unless you can move downtown and rarely have to drive at all, thus eliminating not only the gas increase but the gas expense altogether (perhaps just for one car) and the payments and insurance and maintenance on that car... Unfortunately this is not possible with the state of "public transportation" in many major cities.

I think that over the next 50 years, cities in which it's easy to live without a car are going to boom, and cities where a car is an absolute necessity are going to have significant problems.

Public transit, while not perfect, is fantastic in New York. Much easier than having a car. And the savings of not owning/maintaining/fueling/parking a car helps to offset the ridiculous costs of housing. $150 a month for my wife and I for transportation is great. 2 unlimited subway cards.

 

[otterhound]

The thing I see changing first is demand for McMansions. My pocketbook is feeling increased electricity prices a lot more than increased gas prices. People will continue to commute to the 'burbs, but will choose a 2,000 square foot house instead of a 4,000 square foot one.

 

[j]

Originally Posted by chorse123

I think that over the next 50 years, cities in which it's easy to live without a car are going to boom, and cities where a car is an absolute necessity are going to have significant problems.

Public transit, while not perfect, is fantastic in New York. Much easier than having a car. And the savings of not owning/maintaining/fueling/parking a car helps to offset the ridiculous costs of housing. $150 a month for my wife and I for transportation is great. 2 unlimited subway cards.
Exactly. The areas where light rail is going in in Seattle are supposedly great markets to buy into. Unfortunately, due to the ridiculous gridlock in the way these projects run (and get cancelled, and voted in again, and cancelled again) we are still never sure if and when this is going to happen. But if and when it does, those areas that are connected will see an immediate jump in property values and rent prices because of it.

 

[LabelKing]

Today I realized I only got 9-10MPG.

I think the valves need to be adjusted since it is also running rich.

 

[designprofessor]

Just build more strip malls!

And since alot of Americans think WalMart has all the answers lets start there.

 

[johnapril]

I wouldn't be concerned about gas bills. I would be concerned about the home repair issues on that cheap-slab, OSB, Tyvek, plastic siding, slap-up **** they build in suburbia.

 

[someoneNew]

Anyone who lives in and around the bay area knows that you just can't "move to the city." When 2 BR condos that are decades old are going in the mid 400s people are gonna move farther and farther away. People with 6 figure incomes are commuting over 70 miles one way so they can afford housing. These people will NOT be wanting/keeping big gas guzzling SUVs.

 

[j]

Originally Posted by LabelKing

Today I realized I only got 9-10MPG. I think the valves need to be adjusted since it is also running rich.
Check to see if your air filter needs changing. Running rich is due to the carburetion and air/fuel supply issues.

 

[GQgeek]

Originally Posted by designprofessor

Just build more strip malls!

And since alot of Americans think WalMart has all the answers lets start there.

That's so wrong

 

[LabelKing]

Originally Posted by j

Check to see if your air filter needs changing. Running rich is due to the carburetion and air/fuel supply issues.
The air filter, a very large contraption, was just replaced. However, it mostly seems due to the Bosch Mechanical Fuel Injection system, which runs very well if finely adjusted by hand.