The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[Phileas Fogg]

That is what I meant by "retail" the MSRP. $13,150 (and not the gray market premium).....

Sorry. I read into it a different meaning.

Am I correct in what I said though. I’d hate to pass off incorrect info.

 

[Thin White Duke]

I won’t hold my breath expecting a collapse in the price of Rolex et al. They’ve all stopped production so supply will be slower than ever and that usually pumps up the price.

Alternatively as a lot of people will be out of work there’ll be less spare cash around for some, but are luxury watch buyers not usually protected from recessions?

 

[RJG]

I must have two dozen watches 'saved' to my notepad on Chrono24 - and the settings send me an email if any of those watches have a price drop. I've seen no emails pop up in the last two weeks - since the whole virus/ circus kicked off in the US. Which I must ask...isn't this a bit odd ? Is every seller out there just holding out for as long as they can ? I have a feeling it's just gonna be a waitgame.

 

[double00]

until it's not.

 

[Scuppers]

Something I’ve noticed on C24 over the last 3-4 weeks is a dramatic price increase in some F.P. Journe models, I’m wondering (rather hoping) that is reversed in the need to move-on stock. But, as its watchbox? leading this increase, i doubt that will happen.

 

[earthdragon]

Sorry. I read into it a different meaning.

Am I correct in what I said though. I’d hate to pass off incorrect info.

I would wait for one of the more Rolex savvy members (Dino....) to weigh in & answer.. that is my understanding, at least in the US on AD pricing. Having said that, i have been offered -5% on certain models in Asia...

 

[Omega Male]

We are heading into a global recession for at least two quarters. Sellers in a stronger financial position will try and wait it out but those who have solvency issues will have to liquidate stock. Prices are going to go down in the preowned market, for sure.

 

[Dino944]

Sorry. I read into it a different meaning.

Am I correct in what I said though. I’d hate to pass off incorrect info.

Many years ago there were plenty of Rolex ADs who would sell Daytonas well above the MSRP. However, it is my understanding that in more recent years Rolex informed them that they are not supposed to do this, and if they get caught doing it, they can lose their contract with Rolex. I suppose one way some AD's have gotten around this issue in recent years, is that they will sell you a steel Daytona at MSRP, but only if you have spent a lot of money with them on other Rolex watches (or other products the AD sells).

 

[Dino944]

I won’t hold my breath expecting a collapse in the price of Rolex et al. They’ve all stopped production so supply will be slower than ever and that usually pumps up the price.

Alternatively as a lot of people will be out of work there’ll be less spare cash around for some, but are luxury watch buyers not usually protected from recessions?

With many people saying there is a very strong chance of us going into a global recession I don't see the halt of production keep prices pumped up, unless the production halt were to last several months or longer.

In the last global recession, it became a buyer's market. Back then it really took about 8 months to year to see changes in watch pricing an supply. Back in 2009 my Dad was able to negotiate with an AD for a 5% discount on a new steel Daytona, at a place he had never purchased anything. I was also offered a new steel Daytona at another AD I had never done business with, but I was in their because Mrs. Dino wanted to see what they had for jewelry. Granted, those are just past experiences, but I've already heard of a lot of very successful people being laid off, who are very concerned about when they will be working again, and they are very worried about how long they can pay their mortgage and other family related expenses. I also know guys who were talking about getting relatively nice new cars this year who have not lost their jobs, but who have now put the new cars on hold due to the uncertainty of what is happening in the world. Sure there are people who can still afford to buy whatever they want regardless of the economy. However, I think many steel Rolex buyers are not that insulated from the economy. They do well enough to buy some nice things, but if they lose their jobs, they won't be buying a steel Daytona, GMT or Sub. For now, it is still far too early to see any major changes in prices or availability, but lets see where things are in 8 months to a year.

 

[Ambulance Chaser]

I don't remember what happened during the last financial crisis, but I seem to recall that it primarily affected the financial services industry. I think this recession is likely to affect a lot more people and have significantly greater cascading effects. The hospitality industry is already getting slammed.

 

[clee1982]

Only if you were not working, the last financial crisis affected everyone

 

[Ambulance Chaser]

I must have two dozen watches 'saved' to my notepad on Chrono24 - and the settings send me an email if any of those watches have a price drop. I've seen no emails pop up in the last two weeks - since the whole virus/ circus kicked off in the US. Which I must ask...isn't this a bit odd ? Is every seller out there just holding out for as long as they can ? I have a feeling it's just gonna be a waitgame.

A lot of sellers, particularly non-dealers, are delusional about the fair market value of their watch. The FMV is what a buyer would pay today, and has no relation to what you paid when you bought the watch. I'm tracking a dress watch that has been on sale for over two months on two different watch forums. The seller's starting price was $9200 and he cut the price five times to the current price of $8300. He's selling it for $9200 on eBay. I offered $7000, which I thought was a good starting point for negotiation. He countered with $8999. (Note: higher than what he is asking for elsewhere.) I think the watch is worth between $7000 and $7500, so I countered with $7100. I didn't hear back. Oh well, his loss.

 

[Neville Southall]

We are heading into a global recession for at least two quarters. Sellers in a stronger financial position will try and wait it out but those who have solvency issues will have to liquidate stock. Prices are going to go down in the preowned market, for sure.

* Depression *

 

[md2010]

If I remember correctly Tim Mosso predicts watch and exotic car prices will come down to a price leve like never before. He even said to a potential buyer either to buy a watch he has in stock for instant gratification or to wait for a cheaper price.

 

[Scuppers]

If I remember correctly Tim Mosso predicts watch and exotic car prices will come down to a price leve like never before. He even said to a potential buyer either to buy a watch he has in stock for instant gratification or to wait for a cheaper price.

Fortunate he’s not a govberb share holder!