The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[New Shoes1]

So, a little present for myself arrived from Germany today, and I cannot stop looking at my wrist:




I think I may have found my first dress watch that I enjoy wearing, which is a good thing since I'm in a suit a few times a week. In other news, it's time to sell off the Hamilton Intramatic that never found a place in my rotation. Purchased it in December, but only wore it a few times because it just wasn't what I was looking for.

 

[Cleav]

you wear it well mate

 

[New Shoes1]

you wear it well mate

Thanks, Cleav. This one's a keeper for me. Now, to get some pictures of it with a cocktail or two.

 

[rnguy001]

Congrats on the Nomos. I may in the minority here but I really prefer the lugs on yours vs. their other models.

 

[BLAUGRANA]

Yes, I know you were talking about Black Bay first edition vs. inhouse movement version. My point was it was hard to tell from your use of the term collectible, if you are speaking as to whether it will go up in value or in a more general sense whether its worthy of being purchased.

Regarding service costs...they are what they are. My wife had her great grandmother's pocket watch serviced. The cost far exceeded the value of the watch. Its a decision she decided to do anyway. Service costs are not based on the value of the watch, its essentially a watch makers time. I only brought up use of a factory service center vs. independent watchmaker because you brought up the ease of service for the hot rodded ETA movement. Ease of service only matters if you are servicing yourself (I presume like most of us, you won't), or if you are looking for sources outside of factory service centers. So in the end I don't think that helps make the watch more collectible or matters much.

I like an own and love several pieces that have outsourced movements. However, an outsourced ETA movement even if hot rodded is an ETA movement and for many that will be a strike against the earlier model. Hell, even if it had a movement from one of the more elite makers such as JLC, F. Piguet, Piaget, or Zenith, it might still not be looked on as favorably as if it had an inhouse movement.

I can appreciate that you buy what you like, that is what people should do. I can also understand that you were expressing your thoughts as to why you think the earlier model will be more collectible in terms of value. As for articles or people talking about the earlier one having good chances of appreciating in value, people in the industry love to talk that stuff up...it creates excitement and moves merchandise. However, in reality there is no shortage of watches with relatively short production runs and/or which underwent changes during production, that don't end up appreciating drastically in value. I think each Black Bay has its merits, but I don't think there will be any real appreciation in the value of the earlier model over the new model because the demand just isn't there. Tudor is a nice watch, but for many collectors (or even average consumers) its not a grail...its more of a stepping stone to Rolex. On the used market it will be a great value to someone, but I just don't see the current models ever being specifically sought after and going up in value. Guys get into bidding wars for certain big name brands and Tudor isn't one of them. Rarity is one thing...but without demand it doesn't mean a hell of a lot.

Well I was specifically referring to collectible as both collectible by definition as well as potential future value. For me it's absolutely worthy of being purchased as my initial post suggests whether it's collectible or not.

I understand service costs are not based on the value of the watch and I agree they are what they are. I was simply pointing out that if the service cost is X amount and thus X% of the total price of the watch as a result of being an in-house movement then it's pricey relative to the price. And I was referring to sources outside of factory service centers which from what I understand, and I could be wrong here, would mean that it's cheaper to service especially in this instance because of the movement.

Probably, but in my experience there are plenty of people who are already or will be potential buyers now for whom that isn't an issue. If they are buying a reference that was only around for a few years, or in one case less than a year, then there will be fewer out there. Again, we're talking about decades from now and I'm referring to multiple points and not just the movement. People in my experience are swayed by any number of "minor" details like the coloring of the font, the amount of text on a dial or the placement of "." relative to the "90" on a bezel.

The article I referenced wasn't about one being more valuable than another. It was actually done before the announcement and thus subsequent photos/watches of the new Black Bay in-house model were released and it was simply about the watch itself at that time. I was simply referencing an article where someone echoed the same opinion as myself as regards the rose and the shield and I know someone else who feels the same. Now we could be the only three people on the planet who feel that way, though I suspect that's not remotely close to the case. As for the appreciation in value, as I've outlined it and assuming the market historically follows what we already know then I would only expect it to appreciate in value whether it's the most sought after watch or not. Plenty of watches that aren't overly sought after or that do not start bidding wars have appreciated in value. In fact I can't think of a single vintage watch that I've come across for sale that hasn't appreciated in value. In fact a well known grey dealer at present has three vintage Tudor snowflake Subs for sale, ranging from 1968-1979, and the cheapest is listed for $6900. I don't know the price of that watch when it was released, but I'm guessing it's had an appreciation in value of 500% if that price is realized (and likely if it's not). And that's a watch that isn't a grail for many and was also a stepping stone to Rolex back then from what I understand. Demand is there too and there's a demand Black Bays because both are selling.

 

[BLAUGRANA]

So, a little present for myself arrived from Germany today, and I cannot stop looking at my wrist:


I think I may have found my first dress watch that I enjoy wearing, which is a good thing since I'm in a suit a few times a week. In other news, it's time to sell off the Hamilton Intramatic that never found a place in my rotation. Purchased it in December, but only wore it a few times because it just wasn't what I was looking for.

Congrats on the Orion! Great choice. That was the Nomos I was referring to above, though I'd go 35mm. That said if you're going to 38mm I think you go with the date as it balances out the watch for me. And I'm not a fan of date windows whatsoever, but I like the font that Nomos use for their date numerals. Again, great choice and enjoy it! Oh, and I like the choice of a brown strap.

 

[Dino944]

Well I was specifically referring to collectible as both collectible by definition as well as potential future value. For me it's absolutely worthy of being purchased as my initial post suggests whether it's collectible or not.

I understand service costs are not based on the value of the watch and I agree they are what they are. I was simply pointing out that if the service cost is X amount and thus X% of the total price of the watch as a result of being an in-house movement then it's pricey relative to the price. And I was referring to sources outside of factory service centers which from what I understand, and I could be wrong here, would mean that it's cheaper to service especially in this instance because of the movement.

Probably, but in my experience there are plenty of people who are already or will be potential buyers now for whom that isn't an issue. If they are buying a reference that was only around for a few years, or in one case less than a year, then there will be fewer out there. Again, we're talking about decades from now and I'm referring to multiple points and not just the movement. People in my experience are swayed by any number of "minor" details like the coloring of the font, the amount of text on a dial or the placement of "." relative to the "90" on a bezel.

The article I referenced wasn't about one being more valuable than another. It was actually done before the announcement and thus subsequent photos/watches of the new Black Bay in-house model were released and it was simply about the watch itself at that time. I was simply referencing an article where someone echoed the same opinion as myself as regards the rose and the shield and I know someone else who feels the same. Now we could be the only three people on the planet who feel that way, though I suspect that's not remotely close to the case. As for the appreciation in value, as I've outlined it and assuming the market historically follows what we already know then I would only expect it to appreciate in value whether it's the most sought after watch or not. Plenty of watches that aren't overly sought after or that do not start bidding wars have appreciated in value. In fact I can't think of a single vintage watch that I've come across for sale that hasn't appreciated in value. In fact a well known grey dealer at present has three vintage Tudor snowflake Subs for sale, ranging from 1968-1979, and the cheapest is listed for $6900. I don't know the price of that watch when it was released, but I'm guessing it's had an appreciation in value of 500% if that price is realized (and likely if it's not). And that's a watch that isn't a grail for many and was also a stepping stone to Rolex back then from what I understand. Demand is there too and there's a demand Black Bays because both are selling.

As for service costs, almost any high end steel watch purchased from say 1985 or earlier (with the exception of offerings from AP, PP, and VC), that has been serviced 2 or 3 times in its life has already cost in services more than its original purchase price. The nice thing particularly if its a Rolex is that even the most common steel Oyster is worth significantly more than its original MSRP. A guy I work with who was in the military purchased 2 steel Rolex watches in the late 1960s at a PX, and each were less than $200. As for service, while factory service centers sometimes screw things up, they are the only ones with factory dies and machines for a proper factory finish, and they warranty the work they do. I've seen plenty of nice watches ruined by indies who over polished, rounded edges etc...so great they did it for less than the factory but they screwed it up...what is their warranty worth if they even give one. You get what you pay for.

Clearly you want the first edition Black Bay to appreciate in value. You give some compelling arguments for it. However, those arguments apply to almost any watch and today we could say most watches appreciate at least modestly over several decades time just due to inflation...however, most don't dramatically increase in value....especially for the original owners and for modern pieces. Most modern pieces are made in far larger volumes than what was made 20 or 30 years ago or more, and most depreciate at least for quite a while. Yes I am aware of a few Tudors that have appreciated in value. Earlier I stated the big block Tudors, monte carlo chrono, and Subs (snowflake) had increased...but part of it is that their Rolex siblings of the same period the "basic" Daytona 6263/6265, the Paul Newman Daytonas, and the Red Sub, Military Sub 5517 and other vintage Subs have all increased at an even faster pace. When those were out of reach, would be buyers often look for something similar but at a more appealing price range. I knew several guys that bought big blocks in the 1990s because they couldn't or didn't want to spend for a steel Daytona. A 16520 Daytona still fetches 2-3 times the best price on a big block. Not to mention, how about all the other Tudor models that didn't skyrocket in value.

Decades from now...anything is possible. In the 1980s you could buy a vintage PP, AP, or VC perpetual calendar chronograph for around $2,500 because no one wanted them. Everyone was still in a quartz daze. Values remain strong on pieces because there has been a good collector market for them and its been a good place for some higher end investors to park their $$$. However, there is a younger generation that doesn't care about them due to having iPhones/fit bits etc. Younger guys in my office, don't care about fine watches, they consider them dated and overpriced. If the generations after them continue to lose interest, the market could shrink and go back to the days of when people considered fine vintage watches, merely old watches. Although, that could be good for those of us who want to buy high end pieces at reasonable prices.

If you buy what you like, value shouldn't matter. If one is buying something with the idea it could be worth significantly more in 20-30 years...well wishing you lots of luck with that one. As I said before there is no shortage of relatively rare or low production watch models from nice brands that haven't sky rocketed in value. Rarity/low production is only one ingredient in a watch having the ability to increase drastically in value...its far from the only ingredient. I think we will have to agree to disagree about the Black Bay appreciating in value...and maybe see where they are in 20-30 years. Cheers!

 

[BLAUGRANA]

As for service costs, almost any high end steel watch purchased from say 1985 or earlier (with the exception of offerings from AP, PP, and VC), that has been serviced 2 or 3 times in its life has already cost in services more than its original purchase price. The nice thing particularly if its a Rolex is that even the most common steel Oyster is worth significantly more than its original MSRP. A guy I work with who was in the military purchased 2 steel Rolex watches in the late 1960s at a PX, and each were less than $200. As for service, while factory service centers sometimes screw things up, they are the only ones with factory dies and machines for a proper factory finish, and they warranty the work they do. I've seen plenty of nice watches ruined by indies who over polished, rounded edges etc...so great they did it for less than the factory but they screwed it up...what is their warranty worth if they even give one. You get what you pay for.

Clearly you want the first edition Black Bay to appreciate in value. You give some compelling arguments for it. However, those arguments apply to almost any watch and today we could say most watches appreciate at least modestly over several decades time just due to inflation...however, most don't dramatically increase in value....especially for the original owners and for modern pieces. Most modern pieces are made in far larger volumes than what was made 20 or 30 years ago or more, and most depreciate at least for quite a while. Yes I am aware of a few Tudors that have appreciated in value. Earlier I stated the big block Tudors, monte carlo chrono, and Subs (snowflake) had increased...but part of it is that their Rolex siblings of the same period the "basic" Daytona 6263/6265, the Paul Newman Daytonas, and the Red Sub, Military Sub 5517 and other vintage Subs have all increased at an even faster pace. When those were out of reach, would be buyers often look for something similar but at a more appealing price range. I knew several guys that bought big blocks in the 1990s because they couldn't or didn't want to spend for a steel Daytona. A 16520 Daytona still fetches 2-3 times the best price on a big block. Not to mention, how about all the other Tudor models that didn't skyrocket in value.

Decades from now...anything is possible. In the 1980s you could buy a vintage PP, AP, or VC perpetual calendar chronograph for around $2,500 because no one wanted them. Everyone was still in a quartz daze. Values remain strong on pieces because there has been a good collector market for them and its been a good place for some higher end investors to park their $$$. However, there is a younger generation that doesn't care about them due to having iPhones/fit bits etc. Younger guys in my office, don't care about fine watches, they consider them dated and overpriced. If the generations after them continue to lose interest, the market could shrink and go back to the days of when people considered fine vintage watches, merely old watches. Although, that could be good for those of us who want to buy high end pieces at reasonable prices.

If you buy what you like, value shouldn't matter. If one is buying something with the idea it could be worth significantly more in 20-30 years...well wishing you lots of luck with that one. As I said before there is no shortage of relatively rare or low production watch models from nice brands that haven't sky rocketed in value. Rarity/low production is only one ingredient in a watch having the ability to increase drastically in value...its far from the only ingredient. I think we will have to agree to disagree about the Black Bay appreciating in value...and maybe see where they are in 20-30 years. Cheers!

I agree you get what you pay for. Still from what I understand there are reputable people out there who could service an ETA based movement for less of a cost and not ruin the watch. As for the service costs adding up to more than the original price I would say that still probably holds true for a Black Bay if you buy one and hold onto it long enough. That wasn't the point though. The point was the difference in price getting the movement serviced and while I agree there are perks to getting it serviced by a factory service center there is also a price difference.

Well were I to buy a Black Bay I would absolutely want it to appreciate in value. Why wouldn't I? That wouldn't play a big part in my buying one though. Even if I had a crystal ball that said the in-house reference would increase in value more I'd still buy the first reference because aesthetically that is the watch I'd want on my wrist. Generally though I could care less if it does or not as I don't own one, but I still think it will appreciate in value. Exactly how much I don't know and I certainly don't think it will appreciate in value like watches that were produced say fifty years ago.

Yeah, but the thing is I never said that the Black Bay would dramatically increase in value. I said I thought it would increase in value and specified a difference and my reasons as to why. I understand that modern watches are produced in greater numbers and that many depreciate in value. Still the Black Bay considering it's MSRP and more so what one can have one for right now and possibly in the coming months or years I don't think it will depreciate a lot barring some unforeseen issue like a major shift in the market in which case it wouldn't be down to the Black Bay and most watches would be affected similarly.

I understand that the value of some Tudors were tied to the increase in value of their Rolex cousins. I still see this being the case too which factors into my reasoning. As for the other Tudors that didn't skyrocket in value, again, I never said anything about "skyrocketing" in value. If one were to purchase a Black Bay, enjoy it for say thirty years, and then be able to sell it at that time for just 10% more adjusted for inflation than they paid for it then that would in my opinion be a great thing. They enjoyed their watch and it appreciated in value and that's what I'm saying, though I'm comparing two references is all.

Yeah, anything is possible. I'm going based on what I know though and as you essentially noted then the Black Bay wouldn't be the only watch affected. I also agree that it would be great for those of us who want higher end pieces. Hell, it'd be great just because we love watches regardless of their respective value in the market.

I agree that one should buy what they like regardless of value. Again, were that the case I would probably only buy Rolex and I'd get on a Daytona wait list tomorrow. I'm simply adding what I think the potential value of the Black Bay as an additional reason why I think it's an attractive watch. In fact some of those reasons are reasons why I like the watch because they're aesthetic details that I personally prefer. If I felt the same about say another brand's dive watch where I didn't like the watch, I wouldn't buy the watch simply because I felt it might appreciate in value. I only buy based on what I like as I've said several times. In fact if the Black Bay were slightly less thick in the mid case area I'd probably buy one tomorrow.

I agree that rarity isn't the only reason a watch appreciates in value. We've had this discussion months ago and I said the same then and I'm not saying it's the only factor now. However it can be and in a lot of cases is a factor. It's just not the only factor. And again, I never said "skyrocket" in value nor has anything I posted suggest otherwise. I'm simply saying that I think the Black Bay in a particular reference will likely appreciate in value more than another reference for specific reasons, and I'm saying that as an added selling point to a number of other selling points about the watch itself. The watch only has to increase one unit of currency adjusted for inflation and it's increased in value.

 

[BLAUGRANA]

Limited edition Magritte Reverso:



I like it. Not that I'd buy one, but I think it's nicely done.

 

[atia2]

^ Ceci n'est pas mal.

After breakfast in a greasy spoon off Trafalgar Square, my OQ says it's time to hit the books:

 

[mimo]

Atia, every time I see one of those I think "damn, that's a good looking watch..and yet quite attainable..." and ask myself why I haven't got one. Sigh.

As for the Reverso, I think they should have written "this is not time". But it's still cool. Helps that's it's on the JLC I like best. OK, I want one. I really do. Cool as a polar bear's pants.

 

[mimo]

I have just changed my mind again. One day I will get a used 1931 Tribute, of the standard black variety, and simply tell myself "this is not the Magritte special edition". Which has both philosophical integrity and a marked cost saving.

 

[atia2]

Which has both philosophical integrity and a marked cost saving.

The former being the most important, of course.

 

[Dino944]

I never said anything about "skyrocketing" in value...The watch only has to increase one unit of currency adjusted for inflation and it's increased in value.

I suppose one would have to define how much does it have to appreciate in value that the appreciation even matters. When I mention skyrocketing in value...I'm not saying it becomes worth $30K or more...but it has to be a truly significant amount, or in the end it just doesn't matter whether it does or does not appreciate, breaks even, or slightly depreciates.

If over 30 years it goes up in value by $1,000 ...but you have had 3-4 overhauls on the watch and you had it insured for all those years...then you probably haven't gained anything, maybe if you sold it at that point considering the 3 or 4 overhauls...you lost a little money. If for example a watch with a $5K purchase price doubles or triples in price ...then probably after service overhauls plus insurance, if you sold it you would still make some money. Obviously, making some money or breaking even are preferable to losing money (even a modest amount).

I've been actively buying/selling watches for over 25 years. Most were/are Rolex and over the years several have gone up reasonable amounts (if only because new prices helped bolster used prices) but not enough to truly make a difference in my life, a few dropped in value, a few stayed flat, but only a few went up significantly, but even those are not retirement fund signficantly...just enough that its nice they are worth a good amount more than I paid for them. My point is, and I bought some at very good prices and its great that many have gone up or not lost money, but most don't appreciate in value enough considering long term ownership costs to make much difference (at least to me). Hence whether one model of Tudor's Black Bay appreciates more than the other in 30 years or so probably won't make much difference (not to mention how many people will still be the original owners in 30 years). However, I understand the more $ you put into watches, the the more one would like to think if you wanted to cash out you wouldn't lose money and that you might actually make at least something reasonable on them.

Limited edition Magritte Reverso:



I like it. Not that I'd buy one, but I think it's nicely done.

Always cool to see something different, but wouldn't be my first choice on back of such a fine watch.

^ Ceci n'est pas mal.

After breakfast in a greasy spoon off Trafalgar Square, my OQ says it's time to hit the books:

Definitely an under appreciated but cool watch.

Mine in the park a week ago.

 

[New Shoes1]

Congrats on the Nomos. I may in the minority here but I really prefer the lugs on yours vs. their other models.

Thanks. I agree about the lugs. I just cannot get into the Tangente and other models with the thin, stick lugs.

Congrats on the Orion! Great choice. That was the Nomos I was referring to above, though I'd go 35mm. That said if you're going to 38mm I think you go with the date as it balances out the watch for me. And I'm not a fan of date windows whatsoever, but I like the font that Nomos use for their date numerals. Again, great choice and enjoy it! Oh, and I like the choice of a brown strap.

I tried on both last week and the 38 mm looked better on my 7 inch wrist. I was originally thinking no date, but then noticed your point about the date window and how it balances out the dial and (in my opinion) almost makes the watch a slight bit more casual (which I like). I would be comfortable wearing this in a business casual setting as well. The last 38 mm did not stick for me, in part, because it was both very small, boring to me and never was worn, except when I was in my most conservative dress. I found I was constantly grabbing my Stowa Marine Original to wear with suits simply because I liked it better.