Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[SkinnyGoomba]

I ******* love striking Kuwaitis

 

[Master-Classter]

Trimmed off some DIS at 101 and will buy quite a bit more if it ever goes back down to around 95. Not selling the rest of this until 210-215 then the rest around 220-225.

Sold off the last of my AMZN shares at 630 (damn, was a little early). Bought these ones at 570 or so and I'm ok with that return. Will start buying back in if it hits 600 and under.

Opened a (tiny) position again on FB at 110 and will start buying more closer to 105 and 100 etc if it goes there. Planning to trim at 115 and more at 120-130 etc. I'm ok if this bounces back and forth around 110-115 and I'll keep making a 5% trade every few days.

Also added more to SWHC this morning at 21.5/share. Plenty up upwards room on this one. Then again, only late last year it was 18-19/share so still leaving myself some room in case it keeps dropping. Planning to trim at 25, 27 and sell at 29.

Really hoping TSLA can come back down so I can buy back in. I don't doubt it'll hit 250-260 or hell maybe even higher but really hoping it'll come back down to 220-230 at some point and I'll buy back in.

 

[GreenFrog]

APL over the past two days: red frog is red

 

[chogall]

AAPL over the past two days: red frog is red

Thesis haven't changed at all. Cell phone replacement cycle lengthen from 2 years to 3+ years from subsidies going away.

Largan's Q1 results reaffirmed the thesis, down 22% Y/Y, and Q2 guidance down 20%+ as well.

But AAPL is (was) a hard short; crowd favorite, central bank darling. Hard to fight Swiss National Bank!

 

[OmniscientCause]



Thesis haven't changed at all.  Cell phone replacement cycle lengthen from 2 years to 3+ years from subsidies going away.

Largan's Q1 results reaffirmed the thesis, down 22% Y/Y, and Q2 guidance down 20%+ as well.

But AAPL is (was) a hard short; crowd favorite, central bank darling. Hard to fight Swiss National Bank!

AAPL service revenue is severely undervalued. Why is that they suffer while other companies are praised for something they are doing better is beyond me.

 

[chogall]

AAPL service revenue is severely undervalued. Why is that they suffer while other companies are praised for something they are doing better is beyond me.

Because

1) its less than 10% of its business. Like GOOG ex search, FB ex display ads, AMZN ex retail/AWS.
2) ~10% Y/Y growth @ $20B FY15 vs ~30% Y/Y growth @ ~$210B outside of services

Oh, and hardware slowing down means service slowing down as well. Just ask WinTel.

 

[Master-Classter]

NFLX just dropped about 12-13%. They said they expect subscriber growth to slow down as they raise prices and see competition. I'm still betting long on these guys. Doubled my position this morning around 97-99/share and will add a lot more at 94 and 89 if it hits those prices. Set to trim most of it at 110-115 and will sell it all at 120-125 if it goes there eventually.

Edit - just bought more this morning (4/20) at 94.

 

[OmniscientCause]



Because

1) its less than 10% of its business.  Like GOOG ex search, FB ex display ads, AMZN ex retail/AWS.
2) ~10% Y/Y growth @ $20B FY15 vs ~30% Y/Y growth @ ~$210B outside of services

Oh, and hardware slowing down means service slowing down as well.  Just ask WinTel.

I have to double check but I remember 30% yoy growth. Won't be too long before its sizable chunk of revenue.

Had a big time name from the short world speak to my team today. Was pretty cool

 

[GreenFrog]

The dark period for companies with upcoming earnings releases is 1 month before the ER -- correct?

 

[chogall]



The dark period for companies with upcoming earnings releases is 1 month before the ER -- correct?

It's usually between end of their fiscal quarter and the actual announcement.

 

[snowboardpunk]

Right now I'm in my first year of school (end of my first year) and plan on being in school for 6 more years. I get subsidized loans for 6k a year and pay the rest out of pocket (about 1.5k). Im not sure how much grad school will cost yet but probably a lot (and probably will get a lot more scholarships and financial aid than right now). I also work and make around 60k a year. Im able to save around 10k a year. Im putting the max contributions into a roth ira and saving the rest for rainy day funds. Essentially instead of paying for school out of pocket, I'm willing to take a risk that the money I save every year will grow and have a little bit left after paying off school (since I can withdraw the contribution amount without getting penalized). So essentially save for 6 years and then withdraw a lump sum and pay for school (best case scenario) or can wait it out if the markets down like 30% and use my rainy day funds to pay for part of school (worse case scenario)
Right now I have 5.5k in my roth ira from 2015 and can max out for 2016 essentially. I put the 2015 roth into a vanguard account yesterday and am pretty new to investing. I was thinking of doing one of the three-fund portfolios such as,
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX)
Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund (VGTSX)
Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund (VBMFX)
So, a "three-fund portfolio" might consist of 42% Total Stock Market Index, 18% Total International Stock Index, and 40% Total Bond Market fund.

or Vanguard recommended
30% VTSMX
20% VGTSX
35% VBMFX
15% VTIBX

or would you even recommend me just dumping all of my money into one of these (VTSAX, which would be 100% stocks) to get admiral and have a super low expense ratio. (Not sure if this is the wisest of decisions but just curious) Or maybe just play with stocks and learn as I go, investing in larger companies that I know will do well and just keep playing with it.

Also curious as to whether or not I should get a mutual fund or ETF, I noticed ETF's how lower expense fees than mutual funds for the same fund, but you have to pay a fee for each time you make a trade correct? Is there any other difference that I'm not getting?

 

[jbarwick]

@snowboardpunk - Sounds like you are doing well already. Just keep in mind we are 7 years into a bull market and if it lasts another 4 years, it would be the longest one in history. The reason I say 4 years is that presidential candidates think they can keep it going but well...you know politics. I paid off my student loans which were graduate loans and in the 6-8% range but your undergrad loans may be less. If you are not accruing interest on those while in school, awesome, otherwise paying them off before hand would give you a guaranteed return of the interest rate you are paying as you aren't paying them in interest. The S&P was flat last year so paying on your loans would have been a wise decision.

Anyway, it sounds like you may go the 3-fund portfolio path. A lot of the discussion in this thread is about moves with fun money, so roughly 5-10% of peoples accounts while the other is more invested with long-term growth in mind. While I don't trade a fun money account, I have a similar portfolio as you mentioned. I do a 4-fund portfolio so Total Stock Market (50%), 10% REIT, 20% Bonds, 20% International. Since I am in mutual funds and not ETFs, there is a minimum threshold of $3,000 at Vanguard so you can't make a good asset allocation with only $10K. Your bond allocation seems really high for you age so I would take it down to 20% or even 0%. My wife and I are both 30 and she is more conservative than me so we have a 20% bond allocation. I plan to keep it that way until 45-50. If I were in my 20s I would probably take the gamble of 0%.

Also Admiral Shares vs. Regular shares shouldn't make a big deal. You are not in expensive funds so the Investor Shares are just fine for now. It is not like you are paying 1% to be in a certain fund.

I am sure others will chime in but continue to ask questions.

 

[jbarwick]

Alphabet missed top and bottom which does not bode well for FB since they both had Q4 2015 beats.

 

[chogall]

I have to double check but I remember 30% yoy growth. Won't be too long before its sizable chunk of revenue.

Had a big time name from the short world speak to my team today. Was pretty cool

10% Y/Y service segment growth. It's $20B business, but all those journalists and startup guys are overly enthusiastic about the service business.

All due respect, service growth will remain a fraction of hardware sales growth.

 

[chogall]

Alphabet missed top and bottom which does not bode well for FB since they both had Q4 2015 beats.

Not entirely correct IMO. Google is more on search/intent based ads whereas FB sells display ads.

On the other hand, Buzzfeed cut their 2016 sales projection from $500M to $250M, meaning display ads on social networks are either being priced down or eating dirt.