Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[guyver00]

Here is a nice post on gambler's fallacy:

http://www.psyfitec.com/2010/04/recency-hot-hands-and-gamblers-fallacy.html

I particularly like his blog about behavioral finance. I also bought his book and learned a lot.

 

[MSchapiro]

FYI whoever I made the call to get out of SCTY at 57-59 range with, seems we made a good call.

 

[idfnl]



Literally straight from the wikipedia example:
Or is 4 in a row not sufficiently close to 12 for you?

Of course each individual spin is a 50/50 probability. I'm talking about the probability of the event. If I started betting black at spin 1, it's very improbable that I'd lose 11 in a row, the same odds as me guessing randomly right 11 times in a row. By spin 12 or 13 you're into lottery odds.

 

[Concordia]

Unless, of course, you take the first 11 tries as evidence of a rigged game.

 

[Master-Classter]

Today I sold off some of my HIMX, still keeping a lot though. Up 20% so far on this. Did a lot of buying around $6, now it's $7.5, selling the rest off at $8. Note they're added back their dividend and are paying out later this month.

 

[amerikajinda]

Sea of red! FML :foo:

 

[lawyerdad]

 

[crispeta]



FYI whoever I made the call to get out of SCTY at 57-59 range with, seems we made a good call.

I was smarter/luckier @>60

NFLX, lol.

 

[SkinnyGoomba]

Bought some CVX and RDSA last week.

 

[aglose]

Anyone in on AOI? Some crazy 20% bump yesterday. Up 130% in the last three months.

 

[idfnl]



Bought some CVX and RDSA last week.

Took positions in 4 Australian banks today, they all pay solid 5-6% dividends and have had a recent dip.

ANZBY, NABZY, WBK and CMWAY

 

[lawyerdad]



Ok, I stand corrected:
http://secondnexus.com/technology-a...-backward-and-the-future-can-affect-the-past/

 

[Master-Classter]

I added to my positions of GLF, AA, COS.TO, and opened a position on HCP

Here's hoping TWTR starts moving up for once...

 

[chogall]

With 3 co-founders and ex CEO on the board it's gonna be hard to find a good replacement.

See: Zynga.

 

[fuji]



Of course each individual spin is a 50/50 probability. I'm talking about the probability of the event. If I started betting black at spin 1, it's very improbable that I'd lose 11 in a row, the same odds as me guessing randomly right 11 times in a row. By spin 12 or 13 you're into lottery odds.

You actually believe that the roulette machine has a memory? I have studied probability/stochastics to a fairly high level and it just amazes me you can think this. It's not like the probability decreases exponentially or something the probability of 12 after 11 is just the probability of 11 times 0.5

If you think of it as an event from the beginning where nothing has happened yet then 11 black 1 red is 12x as likely as 12 black because there are 12x as many ways for it to occur, but once those first 11 blacks have occurred the next event is independent.