Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[Piobaire]

Hmm, barring EOD rally, market will finish 2023 on a down day.

#FJB!!

 

[brokencycle]

All I see is a lot of sex jargon in here

 

[UnFacconable]

I don't think I put a single dollar into public equities this year, aside from 401(k).

I think in a decade or so I will look back at the financial decisions I made during the 2021-2023 timeframe as either the reason I'm still working or the reason I don't have to any more. One or two outlier outcomes could really move the needle.

At this point in time, although I know I didn't make the safe decision, it's still a bit too early to say whether it was the right one.

All that said, I definitely didn't come close to the S&P500 on my public equities. In part because I have a decent sized position that had a bad year and in large part because there were a lot of moving pieces this year so it's hard for me to even figure out what numerators and denominators to use.

 

[gettoasty]

A quick look at my 401k website and it says 21% return.

A quick look at 12/31/21 YE vs 2023 YE account value and I've broke even essentially. It would seem I've eek out a small gain.

Most individuals I am privy to seem to be about the same.

What resonates with me is remembering some individuals in Q1 and Q2 pointing out Warren Buffet's cash holding that essentially missed the rally in Q3 and Q4. I think those individuals may be in the red still by timing the market rather than time in the market. 🤷‍♂️

 

[Omega Male]

I don't think I put a single dollar into public equities this year, aside from 401(k).

I think in a decade or so I will look back at the financial decisions I made during the 2021-2023 timeframe as either the reason I'm still working or the reason I don't have to any more. One or two outlier outcomes could really move the needle.

At this point in time, although I know I didn't make the safe decision, it's still a bit too early to say whether it was the right one.

All that said, I definitely didn't come close to the S&P500 on my public equities. In part because I have a decent sized position that had a bad year and in large part because there were a lot of moving pieces this year so it's hard for me to even figure out what numerators and denominators to use.

Public equities aren't getting me free rides on your jet one day. We must trust in the QSBS.

 

[UnFacconable]

Public equities aren't getting me free rides on your jet one day. We must trust in the QSBS.

The most probable outcome for my type of business in this environment is unfortunately still zero but I suppose I have a lottery ticket.

The next year will be quite a roller coaster. Hopefully VCs start writing more checks soon.

However, I will bring the wine if you bring the jet.

 

[the shah]

Hopefully VCs start writing more checks soon.

I have no idea how reasonable of a prediction this is but:

The Equity crew predicts we'll see fewer VCs in 2024 | TechCrunch

We're saying goodbye to 2023 with an Equity tradition: our predictions episode!

techcrunch.com

 

[jbarwick]

I stopped keeping track of returns at the end of 2021 according to my worksheet but didn't really do anything big in 2023 except get rid of the stinker single stocks and throw it back into the S&P. Current mix is 5% bonds, 20% Intl, 2.5% EM, rest S&P.

 

[UnFacconable]

I have no idea how reasonable of a prediction this is but:

The Equity crew predicts we'll see fewer VCs in 2024 | TechCrunch

We're saying goodbye to 2023 with an Equity tradition: our predictions episode!

techcrunch.com

There is definitely a thinning of the herd happening. A lot of smaller single GP funds formed and raised money over the last few years - much of it based on irrational exuberance based on a small number of written up angel investments. They were never market movers though and mostly just piled into deals.

We are definitely seeing funds pushing back final closings, downsizing, etc, and fundraising troubles will both cause VCs to slow their check writing as well as some just shutting down.

The best businesses still get funded but we will see a lot of companies shut down in the next 12+ months.

 

[otc]

I admit it is pretty amusing watching some of my entrepreneurial b-school classmates on LinkedIn rotate through new ventures that do buzzword + buzzword, then pivot to buzzword and then vanish.

I mean, I absolutely wish them well, but when I’m watching some cofounder describe their new business in flowery terms in a launch video and I know they personally have zero tech skills, I question whether there’s something better they could be putting their talents towards.

 

[Texasmade]

I admit it is pretty amusing watching some of my entrepreneurial b-school classmates on LinkedIn rotate through new ventures that do buzzword + buzzword, then pivot to buzzword and then vanish.

I mean, I absolutely wish them well, but when I’m watching some cofounder describe their new business in flowery terms in a launch video and I know they personally have zero tech skills, I question whether there’s something better they could be putting their talents towards.

Be glad they’re grifting tech bros and not grifting GQP politicians.

 

[venividivicibj]

whether there’s something better they could be putting their talents towards.

Seems like their ’talent’ is marketing.

 

[HRoi]

I admit it is pretty amusing watching some of my entrepreneurial b-school classmates on LinkedIn rotate through new ventures that do buzzword + buzzword, then pivot to buzzword and then vanish.

I mean, I absolutely wish them well, but when I’m watching some cofounder describe their new business in flowery terms in a launch video and I know they personally have zero tech skills, I question whether there’s something better they could be putting their talents towards.

In my case, it’s ex-coworkers and not b-school classmates who go from buzzword to buzzword to link to quote to derivative observation.

They tend to have been the people who left because they were a little overindexed on their self-belief so I just smile

 

[Piobaire]

I've never been a fan of that platform. Hasn't it always been the least talented people describing how awesome they are, doing awesome things, and being given accolades for being awesome by other awesome people?

 

[jbarwick]

Say what you want about the fly by night startups but they pay my wife pretty well. A couple of the "VCs", dumb money at this point, really like her and have already said they would plug her into other portfolio companies if something goes awry at her current gig. She also has one of the most inflated titles at SVP of Finance and Administration.