The Watch Appreciation Thread - Part two (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Jaeger LeCoultre,

[clee1982]

Luckily my boss has VC, so sets bar pretty high that I wouldn't have to worry about topping any time soon...

 

[Anm1984]

I'd look into some grand seikos. Many of them would for your needs.

 

[Dachshund]

Been a while since I've posted but I thought some of you might like to see a couple of interesting watches from an event I attended tonight with the great Roger Smith. Above is a Roger Smith Series 4 next to my Reverso.

 

[Dachshund]

And here's a Series 3.

Sorry for the poor photos but the lighting wasn't great.

Also, full disclosure, whilst the man himself was there and gave a fascinating account of his career sadly for insurance reasons the watches themeselves didn't have movements - a shame as would have been awesome to see them. Beautiful dials, hands and cases though.

 

[Dachshund]

Apologies didn't mean to attach that picture three times...

 

[Texasmade]

The Roger Smith Series 4 looks pretty cool. What's the retail on one?

 

[Article 26]

The Roger Smith Series 4 looks pretty cool. What's the retail on one?

http://quillandpad.com/2015/11/27/r...cellence-in-hand-crafted-english-watchmaking/

I've heard that there is a substantial waiting list of around 5 years, already.

 

[Texasmade]

http://quillandpad.com/2015/11/27/r...cellence-in-hand-crafted-english-watchmaking/

I've heard that there is a substantial waiting list of around 5 years, already.

Wow, £250,000. I would never think that getting a Patek perpetual calendar chrono would be easier and cheaper than this watch.

 

[Article 26]

Wow, £250,000. I would never think that getting a Patek perpetual calendar chrono would be easier and cheaper than this watch.

Yeah, who'd of thought!

Saw this yesterday - https://www.sothebys.com/en/auctions/ecatalogue/2017/important-watches-hk0743/lot.2177.html
If only I could afford it!

And a nice Dufour simplicity. (Same auction)

Smith may be fustidious with design and finish but it's a steep price to pay.

 

[Dachshund]

Difficult to compare (for example) PP with RS. They are very different propositions. I'm not saying one is 'better' than the other - and each to his own - but the whole point with RS's watches is that they are the legacy of George Daniels (one warchmaker, although RS has a team of around seven I think, almost entirely in house), tiny tiny production (around ten a year I think) and so a more artisanal product. Possibly not as 'crisp' as a PP, but something of real rarity. Of course you must always buy what you love, but I'd also see an RS as a superb investment - I actually think they are very good value comparatively for what they are and the rarity. Roger said the waiting list is c three years.

 

[Article 26]

Difficult to compare (for example) PP with RS. They are very different propositions. I'm not saying one is 'better' than the other - and each to his own - but the whole point with RS's watches is that they are the legacy of George Daniels

Absolutely

 

[benf]

Honestly, I think Rolex/Patek are the only watch my coworkers would recognize.

Despite all the marketing, a Patek is understated and I haven't had anyone comment/notice this.

 

[am55]

Difficult to compare (for example) PP with RS. They are very different propositions. I'm not saying one is 'better' than the other - and each to his own - but the whole point with RS's watches is that they are the legacy of George Daniels (one warchmaker, although RS has a team of around seven I think, almost entirely in house), tiny tiny production (around ten a year I think) and so a more artisanal product. Possibly not as 'crisp' as a PP, but something of real rarity. Of course you must always buy what you love, but I'd also see an RS as a superb investment - I actually think they are very good value comparatively for what they are and the rarity. Roger said the waiting list is c three years.

Thank you for bringing some independents - especially at the high end - into the thread. Much appreciated.

This leads me to query the general wisdom of the crowd: how do such works hold their value over time? Who were the independents 40 years ago and what happened to their value relative to brands that are corporate owned and whose recent heavy marketing is responsible in part for the rising tide of vintage prices? What will happen to the likes of RS, Dufour or Hajime Asaoka when this generation of buyers dies out, assuming they don't get bought?

 

[Dachshund]

Interesting point. If I am looking at it purely as an investment, I find myself applying the George Daniels analysis to RS watches, for understandable reasons, but they may well of course end up being very different in time. GD Watches fetch enormous prices at auction. I can't honestly predict whether in 20 years a RS Series 1, for example, would fetch an enormous premium, wash its face or have been totally forgotten. Easy to be seduced by the rarity, which at least in the case of RS is genuine. It could of course be partly because GD had a small output, was considered an absolute guru and (perhaps crucially in this respect) died just at a time when watch hoopla really took off.

Brings me to my overarching law of buying a watch - irrespective of whether it might or might not be a good investment you've got to love it. I would never buy as an investment alone. Whilst I really appreciate Roger's craft and I love what he is doing, if I'm honest I don't absolutely love the look of his watches to an extent that I'd want to spend six figures on one, and I should resist trying to convince myself that it might be a fantastic investment, and that that can supplement the lack of love, because I simply don't know.

 

[Dino944]

Thank you for bringing some independents - especially at the high end - into the thread. Much appreciated.

This leads me to query the general wisdom of the crowd: how do such works hold their value over time? Who were the independents 40 years ago and what happened to their value relative to brands that are corporate owned and whose recent heavy marketing is responsible in part for the rising tide of vintage prices? What will happen to the likes of RS, Dufour or Hajime Asaoka when this generation of buyers dies out, assuming they don't get bought?

Definitely an important question. There definitely are not enough Daniels or RS watches out there to see how their values hold up, especially in the long run. They are beautiful pieces, and one buys them to have something rare and different from the offerings of the usual big names in the market place. Big players/collectors know their watches, but they are hardly well known brands even by people who like watches and collect casually. I think their lack of being well known in the market place, means they have a very small audience, and I don't think in the long run they hold their value as well as Patek. Patek is a name collectors trust and with a proven track record in terms of resale/appreciation in value. Now an astute collector may recognize and be willing to spend a high amount to get a pre-owned Daniels or RS piece into their collection...but you need that type of collector who is willing to spend to have a specific piece. The flip side is a collector may know what a Daniels or RS is and want one, and knowing there aren't as many people would would be willing to buy one as there would be who would buy a Patek, he may offer less than what the piece is truly worth. A buyer looking to move a piece might find he is the only or one of a few people interested...so it may result in a bargain price for a buyer if a seller needs to sell the piece (lets say its part of an estate). If you need parts or service for a watch by an independent, who is to say how easy that will be 20 years from now. With Patek, or other big name brands that isn't really a concern. I think for the most part you need a certain size audience in order to have a strong chance for a watch to hold its value or maybe appreciate. I think most independents are lacking in large scale audiences that will help foster strong resale.

As for what was going on 40 years ago, even big companies were concerned and many barely survived the quartz revolution...so I would imagine there was little to no market for independent's 40 years ago.

A friend of mine liquidated more than 30 VCs and decided to buy a JDN tourbillon. He bought it because he wanted something rare, something he won't see on other's wrists, and he doesn't care about resale value. IIRC he spent just under $140K. Its a beautiful watch, he got to communicate with Daniel Roth, and he even had a bit of input one some small personal touches...but I don't think I'd spend that kind of money on a watch unless I was sure my wife could get that money back if something happened to me and she wanted to use the funds for something else.