Random fashion thoughts - Part II (A New Hope)

[LA Guy]

Interesting number for you, research firm IHL estimates that globally businesses lose $8.4 billion every year in return costs due to wrong sizing. http://engage.dynamicaction.com/WS-2015-06-IHL-Ghost-Economy-Haunting-of-Returns-AR_LP.html

As for price inflation, this still applies http://www.businessoffashion.com/ar...e-the-prices-of-designer-goods-rising-so-fast

I was just about to say this.

Zappos, for example, spends vast amounts due to wrong sizing. iirc, Amazon, which is the parent company, bought a shoe sizing software specificially to try to cut into that expense.

As for the increase in luxury good prices, I think that a lot of it is due to the lower end of the luxury goods market becoming filled with companies that are either the children or grandchildren of the premium denim market of the 2000s, that led to increasing the market for fashion and leading to a greater tolerance for higher prices in luxury clothing, overall.

 

[sepp]



I just buy Uniqlo crew neck white tees one size up and they look fine. I don't like designer tees but those LA tees might be something you can check out in person.

That's a good suggestion.

 

[bry2000]



I have worked with over 100 retailers in the past decade or so, and I will tell you that the answer is an unequivocal "yes", no matter what.  It's like someone saying "Make youself at home".  There are still limits to civility.  If you use the restroom or get a drink from the fridge, sure, that's cool.  If you install yourself in my bedroom, yeah, I'd be a little pissed, even if I did tell you to "make yourself at home.  

If you get the 10th email from the same customer who has bought... nothing, or if a guy who has a return rate of 90%, yes, you are going to feel differently from the 3rd email from the customer who always buys, and is just asking for something to be added to their order, or a big order from a guy who has a non-existent return rate.

I agree with your observations. That is why I mainly shop in-store so that I can see and try on to keep my return rate minimal. If I do buy on-line, it is usually something that I have seen in person or I am very confident about the fit. Of course, I have purchased a few things on-line on spec (with mixed results), but those things are typically at deep sale prices with no returns allowed.

There have been times that I have held off ordering something on line (from say thecorner.com) because I was unsure of the fit or whether I would really like it. If I had already done a return to that website that season, I would definitely not take a chance on something I was not sure about, even with free shipping/returns.

 

[jet]



I think most of it is probably people just spending more of their income on clothing, but a good chunk of it is also just rising incomes. Income for households earning over $200,000 actually grew considerably in the last five years. Even more so for households earning over $350,000/ year. I assume those people make up most of the luxury fashion market.

As for why luxury items didn't grow across the board, I don't know if you should expect them to. People can purchase fancy shoes and jackets a lot easier than they can Ferarris and yachts. Plus, the prices of luxury autos may be near their ceiling. Fashion, on the other hand, has created entirely new markets. Luxury sneakers, denim, and athletic wear now exist in a way they didn't fifteen years ago (or even five years, to some degree). Back in 2005, the prices for APC and Common Projects were enough to shock people, but $150 jeans and $250 sneakers is pretty normal now, at least for the regular fashion consumer.

Prices haven't tripled, but real estate prices have also skyrocketed, esp in those cities where you'd expect to find people wearing said items.

To some extent retailers need a reason for people to come back to their sites, lest they run off to another site with a current sale or fresh drop, or start exploring different brands/trends.

On Jet's points about pricing, are we sure that the prices actually reflect what the market will bear, or are they attempts to figure out what prices will be tolerated in these nascent/expanding markets (hypebeasts/menswear/etc.)? If the latter, think some of those prices will prove unsustainable. Even if you're in a >$350k income bracket, you're going to feel burned if your $200 henley from Mr. Porter isn't noticeably superior to the $20 alternative from some fast fashion store.

I don't think the consumers of slp and lanvin are people in those brackets. If someone can afford a $350k rolls then they can afford a $500k rolls and I don't know if I believe in an actual ceiling would ever exist in any case. True religions in 2005 cost 2-300, far more than apcs btw.

Johan hit the nail on the head, they are attempts at figuring it out. The market for luxury sneaks and designer menswear is on an incline for the reasons I mention and possibly the pricing structure is being tested before it can settle down to an equilibrium. Only time will tell.

 

[iamacyborg]

It's not just menswear, Topshop for example is selling £600 coats, which is well above what you'd expect from a fast-fashion retailer.

 

[johanm]



I don't think the consumers of slp and lanvin are people in those brackets. If someone can afford a $350k rolls then they can afford a $500k rolls and I don't know if I believe in an actual ceiling would ever exist in any case. True religions in 2005 cost 2-300, far more than apcs btw.

Johan hit the nail on the head, they are attempts at figuring it out. The market for luxury sneaks and designer menswear is on an incline for the reasons I mention and possibly the pricing structure is being tested before it can settle down to an equilibrium. Only time will tell.

It's also hard to compare clothes retail prices with car/house prices. We don't know much about Mr. P's inventory or sales volume, all we know is an original offer price that in many cases is slashed by up to 70% during sales season. Also some of the pricing is surely designed to build brand equity/signal a price of entry for a given brand, in contrast to just maxing profits on the given item. Say Tom Ford sells 50 units of the $2k sweater but would have sold 1000 units of that sweater at $500. Don't know if it's right to conclude that the market "bears" the $2k price, even if it's a rational to price it there since it helps TF sell 1000s of bottles of $300 perfume.

I'm skeptical of a pricing strategy premised on menswear as a simple Veblen good where people love paying higher prices for their goods. There's obviously a status symbol component to these purchases but (1) society as a whole is moving toward being more informed/rational on all types of buying decisions, and (2) even affluent people operate on a budget, especially as they spend higher % of their disposable income on clothes, and thus value considerations will play a role in how they deploy their cash.

 

[LA Guy]

It's not just menswear, Topshop for example is selling £600 coats, which is well above what you'd expect from a fast-fashion retailer.

This is a result of the growth, or really, the birth and emergence, of the "high end high street" brands, that in many ways mimcs higher priced designer goods and luxury brands.

Until about 2000, this category simply did not exist. The fashions that you could get at a high end "streetwear" store, had essentially nothing in common with what you could get from a high end, designer focused, boutique or department store, like a Barneys. The Acne's and Ami's of the world simply did not exist at that time. APC, even, was a very different beast then what it is now. It was highly casual (lots of sweats, one of their two jeans models, the "Anglaise" was a baggy streetwear model - the inspirations were much more military surplus inspired) and the prices were considerably lower - to the point that a graduate student could afford it regularly. The emergence of the "subdesigner" category, that offered cool clothing that had styles much more aligned with designer styles, but at more accessible, but still high prices, conditioned the market to support higher prices. I remember when @jet talked a lot about Common Projects prices, and $250 seemed really high for sneakers. Nom de Guerre, moving away from streetwear roots, started to sell tweed M65s (I still have mine) for $800 in about 2005, which was as high as a Costume National coat (also still have it) was, just 4 years previous. The designer brands repriced to adjust to the new realities, both to make more $$$ and to further differentiate from the oi polloi that was pushing up to that space that had previously been rarified air.

This was more true of the US than of Europe, and definitely than of Japan, but the US is, and remains, the biggest market for luxury goods, anecdotal stories aside.

 

[GoldenTribe]

btw, oi polloi is the store name but hoi polloi is the general [Greek] term for the unwashed masses.

 

[LA Guy]

btw, oi polloi is the store name but hoi polloi is the general [Greek] term for the unwashed masses.

Huh. I though that the spellings were interchangeable. I liked oi polloi just because Hoi Polloi sounds like a good noodle dish.

 

[cyc wid it]

Where to kop cozy lined denim trucker jacket. Can be indigo, khaki, etc.

 

[gettoasty]

http://www.spenceclothing.com/store/men/Martin-margiela-denim-jacket-with-fur-collar-art30507.html

 

[cyc wid it]

Interesting, but was hoping for lined body too. Did Louis W x APC have one?

 

[gettoasty]

i don't really follow APC much nowadays, no idea

ask jet

 

[thekunk07]

amazing how many people on here spend a fortune on clothes but have bodies like grimace and look like pudding in their clothes

 

[LA Guy]

Interesting, but was hoping for lined body too. Did Louis W x APC have one?

Samurai version of the Lee's jacket at Blue In Green, could possibly get less expensive on Rakuten.

Other sources: https://www.denimio.com/samurai-jeans-s0101lj-flannel-lined-denim-jacket-one-washed.html

Robert Geller x Levis: http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/131650409687?ul_noapp=true&chn=ps&lpid=82