NFL 2011/2012 Discussion

[MetroStyles]



Oh, don't get me wrong. Peyton is a fantastic QB. If not the best, certainly top 3 in modern history. I'm not saying all the Colts' issues are on him, as you can see by the Kerry Collins experience on Sunday, the team is **** with Peyton.



Clutch being that you can count on that player to play great when it counts. Usually when a QB plays great, barring an absolute shitshow from the defense (what's up 2009 Packers), that team wins.

Now let's leave the words behind and focus on the stats like the nerds we are.

Here are stats form Peyton's post season:

1999 - L 16-19 TEN: 19-42-45.2%-227-0-0-62.3

2000 - L 17-23 MIA: 17-32-53.1%-194-1-0-82.0

2002 - L 41-0 NYJ: 14-31-45.2%-137-0-2-31.4

2003 - W 41-10 DEN: 22-26-84.6%-377-5-0-158.3
W 38-31 KC: 22-30-73.3%-304-3-0-138.7
L 24-14 NE: 23-47-48.9%-237-1-4-35.5

2004 – W 49-24 DEN: 27-33-81.8%-458-4-1-145.8
L 20-3 NE: 27-42-64.3%-238-0-1-69.3

2005 - L 18-21 PIT:-22-38-57.9%-290-1-0-90.9

2006 – W 23-8 KC: 30-38-L 18-21-78.9%-268-1-3-71.9
W 15-6 BAL: 15-30-50.0%-170-0-2-39.6
W 38-34 NE: 27-47-57.4%-349-1-1-79.1
W 29-17 CHI: 25-38-65.8%-247-1-1-81.8

2007 - L 24-28 SD: 33-48-68.8%-402-3-2-97.7

2008 - L 17-23 SD: 25-42-59.5%-310-1-0-90.4

2009 - W 20-3 BAL: 30-44-68.2%-246-2-1-87.9
W 30-17 NYJ: 26-39-66.7%-377-3-0-123.6
L 17-31 NO: 31-45-68.9%-333-1-1-88.5

2010- L 16-17 NYJ: 18-26-69.2%-225-1-0-108.7

You can find an easier to read version here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/

What it basically says, to me, is that I'm half right and half wrong. This is the first time I've looked in depth at his post season stats and I think his public perception is incredibly hurt by those few terrible games he had. When you can't put up TDs and throw multiple INTs, it's going to hurt your reputation. Ironically, it looks like his SB winning year 2006 was his worst post season performance on average. But yes, he has had some incredible post season performances.

I suppose we can agree that a player's legacy is not always fair. But results are all that matter. And I do appreciate your statistical sleuthwork. <3 sport nerd discussions. =D

 

[phreak]



Oh, don't get me wrong. Peyton is a fantastic QB. If not the best, certainly top 3 in modern history. I'm not saying all the Colts' issues are on him, as you can see by the Kerry Collins experience on Sunday, the team is **** with Peyton.



Clutch being that you can count on that player to play great when it counts. Usually when a QB plays great, barring an absolute shitshow from the defense (what's up 2009 Packers), that team wins.

Now let's leave the words behind and focus on the stats like the nerds we are.

Here are stats form Peyton's post season:

1999 - L 16-19 TEN: 19-42-45.2%-227-0-0-62.3

2000 - L 17-23 MIA: 17-32-53.1%-194-1-0-82.0

2002 - L 41-0 NYJ: 14-31-45.2%-137-0-2-31.4

2003 - W 41-10 DEN: 22-26-84.6%-377-5-0-158.3
W 38-31 KC: 22-30-73.3%-304-3-0-138.7
L 24-14 NE: 23-47-48.9%-237-1-4-35.5

2004 – W 49-24 DEN: 27-33-81.8%-458-4-1-145.8
L 20-3 NE: 27-42-64.3%-238-0-1-69.3

2005 - L 18-21 PIT:-22-38-57.9%-290-1-0-90.9

2006 – W 23-8 KC: 30-38-L 18-21-78.9%-268-1-3-71.9
W 15-6 BAL: 15-30-50.0%-170-0-2-39.6
W 38-34 NE: 27-47-57.4%-349-1-1-79.1
W 29-17 CHI: 25-38-65.8%-247-1-1-81.8

2007 - L 24-28 SD: 33-48-68.8%-402-3-2-97.7

2008 - L 17-23 SD: 25-42-59.5%-310-1-0-90.4

2009 - W 20-3 BAL: 30-44-68.2%-246-2-1-87.9
W 30-17 NYJ: 26-39-66.7%-377-3-0-123.6
L 17-31 NO: 31-45-68.9%-333-1-1-88.5

2010- L 16-17 NYJ: 18-26-69.2%-225-1-0-108.7

You can find an easier to read version here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00/gamelog/post/

What it basically says, to me, is that I'm half right and half wrong. This is the first time I've looked in depth at his post season stats and I think his public perception is incredibly hurt by those few terrible games he had. When you can't put up TDs and throw multiple INTs, it's going to hurt your reputation. Ironically, it looks like his SB winning year 2006 was his worst post season performance on average. But yes, he has had some incredible post season performances.

And to expand on this somewhat..PM didn't become PM until his 2003-2004 season. What I mean is that his control and understanding of the offense took a big step between that season and the preceding one. It's interesting to look at his yearly totals to see how the rest of his team effected his bottom line. 2007 through 2011 he has basically had zero run game and an absolute **** offensive line with Wayne being his primary deep threat. And outside from Wayne/Clark his reveivers have been inconsistent (in/out of the lineup/drops/etc.). His INTs are up, attempts are up, and YPA down.

The period of 2003 through 2007 he had Harrison in basically his prime along with Wayne as the #2 and Stokley in the slot. Also the O-line was dominant and the stretch play was a staple. He had more time in the pocket and as a result his YPA was up, ints down, and attempts down (prob a direct result of his ypa being up tbh).

Looking forward, he will likely be in a new situation with a revamped line but questions about the reveivers. And he's getting old.

But yea...even in the small sample of his playoff history, there is a bit of an inflection point that lines up with his regular season play

*edit* it should be noted that the 07 through 11 version of PM is without a doubt a better qb than the 03-07 version

 

[whallyden]

Which matchup do you like better in week 2?

Vick vs. Atlanta

Stafford vs. KC

 

[soxpats]



Romo has never been what was wrong with this team. He's only occasionally been what's right with it but the Cowboys could win a Super Bowl with him as QB no problem. They have basically had the same problems for the past 10 years: the O-line and the secondary. They never seem to solve those problems and until they do they will be a permanent 9-7 team.

No way he wins a Super Bowl, he alway blows the game. That INT was on him, he fumbled.............HE SUCKS! just my opinion though.

 

[airblaster503]



Which matchup do you like better in week 2?

Vick vs. Atlanta

Stafford vs. KC

Stafford(yeah I am a Lions fan and he is my fantasy QB). Look at what Fitzpatrick was able to do against the Chiefs, now think of Stafford with more talented recievers, easy choice.

 

[venessian]



romo is really irritating to watch. because he's good, but you know he'll make a major major mistake. Then romo has that smirk/smile like everything's cool and alright as he runs the playclock down to zero putting himself into the teeth of the Rex Ryan Defense/blitzes and throws to an obviously gassed bryant guarded by Revis.

This is the main reason I dislike Romo. He just doesn't seem to have it all together, and tries to make up for it by acting casual/snarky, etc. I get the feeling that he's not really that respected by his receivers; the kind of respect Fitzgerald had for Warner, or qbs like Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, and even younger guys like Ryan, etc. seem to get. He just doesn't strike me as in real command of the huddle, nor as a real leader. Wait, that's not entirely accurate...he did make TO cry, after all.... [VIDEO][/VIDEO]
I will also fully admit that Romo is really, really, really good at this play.

 

[jrd617]

Week 2 power rankings. Sounds about right. So how about those Lions?


1. Packers
2. Patriots
3. Eagles (up from spot 4 last week)
4. Ravens (up from spot 8 last week)
5. Jets (up from spot 7 last week)
6. Saints (down from spot 5 last week)
7. Bears (up from spot 13 last week)
8. Steelers
9. Chargers
10. Texans

http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/year/2011/week/2

 

[yjeezle]



This is the main reason I dislike Romo. He just doesn't seem to have it all together, and tries to make up for it by acting casual/snarky, etc. I get the feeling that he's not really that respected by his receivers; the kind of respect Fitzgerald had for Warner, or qbs like Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Rivers, Brees, and even younger guys like Ryan, etc. seem to get. He just doesn't strike me as in real command of the huddle, nor as a real leader. Wait, that's not entirely accurate...he did make TO cry, after all.... [VIDEO][/VIDEO]
I will also fully admit that Romo is really, really, really good at this play.

sometimes i wonder if it's romo's cadence or if the o-line just sucks... for sure lions against kc. kansas sucks this year. i can't believe i lost in fantasy... stupid wes welker and his 99 yard TD... dude had jankilowski too... i had chris johnson, matt forte, chicago d, aaron rodgers, antonio gates, steve smith... (i had 153 pts) dude had ray rice, wes welker, raven's d, stafford, some random TE that gave him like 8 pts, fred jackson (he beat me by .7)

 

[phreak]



**EDIT Pittsburgh -14 vs Seattle /EDIT** There aren't a lot of positive things to say about the Seahawks except that they are at home and are getting a shitload of points. Somehow, this is closer than 15. EDIT** apparently Seattle isn't at home..so yea there is absolutely nothing positive to say about this matchup from their persepective. I'm taking Pittsburgh

NO -6.5 vs Bears The story of this game will be turnovers and offensive efficiency and I expect the Saints to dominate both categories. Sproles could have a monster game as Payton will trust him more.

Indy +2 vs Cleveland lol this is too funny...the Colts getting points from the Browns, at home. Indy's D always plays better at home. They have shown, at times, that they can stop the run and obviously will be all over McCoy on passing downs. Still have Freeney and Mathis on the outside but now they have Drake Nevis (had an amazing camp and preseason..kid's a beast) inside. Also, Anderson and Brayton have shown that they are effective run stoppers. The secondary should have a much more manageable workload compared to last week. If Collins can get any time, and I expect him to, he can make the throws. The Colts still have great receiving options. However, special teams play could blow up all of this.

Dallas -2.5 @ SF Dallas is coming off of a tough road loss against the Jets. They moved the ball quite effectively for much of the game even without a run game. Look for the Cowboys to get Felix plenty of touches in lots of different ways. Romo will still get his...and SF has a revamped secondary that Romo will pressure all game. Screens, draws, play actions will be used liberally. For the 49ers it all starts with Gore. Dallas will get a lead early forcing Smith to throw more than planned.

Atlanta +3.5 vs Eagles I am higher on Matt Ryan and the Falcon's offense in general than most. Thomas Dimitroff is the real deal and is someone I respect and follow. As long as he is the GM this team will be contenders. Obv they need to get backfield pressure on Mike Vick (the hype machine is still strong here) and not let him buy enough time for DeSean Jackson to burn the defense. Their #1 goal should be to stop the big play and I think they will plan accordingly. The Eagles' secondary is still an unknown to me at this point but is potentially dominant. Ryan will test it all game and it will be critical that they don't fall behind early in this one. Roddy White vs Nnamdi will be a great matchup.

SD +7.5 vs NE Super inflated NE line after an amazing Brady line. But the game was closer than the score indicated. The NE defense gave up 400+ to Chad Henne. I expect SD to be a contender for the AFC crown and I'm not giving them 7.5 vs anyone this year. Also, Bob Sanders. But this pick comes down to over exposure to NE and as a result, an inflated line. Again, the NE defense struggles.

Tampa +3 @ Vikings I'm all ears if you can tell me any reason why Minn should be favored this week..TB is simple a better team and they will win outright. Oddsmakers are still not coming to terms with the fact that McNabb is not the same qb he was in Philly.

Ravens -5.5 @ Titans Baltimore will shut down the fastest rb in the league this week. The Tenn offense must start and finish with CJ and against Baltimore that just isnt an option. I was impressed with Flacco (for the first time in his career) last week against Pitt. Evans across from Boldin has been really good so far and should be able to beat the Titan secondary all day. And a healthy (see: Ed Reed) Baltimore defense is still completely dominant, especially against the 2 man show the Titans have.

GB -9.5 @ Carolina Haha, really? Prediction: Newton throws for < 40%

Houston -2.5 @ Miami If Foster plays, I'm taking Houston. If he doesn't, I'll take Miami**Foster looks ready to go! I'm curious to see how Mario and the D will do against a non-terrible offense. Go Houston!!

 

[Douglas]

Teddy Bruschi is making himself out to be one roid raging prick.

 

[Texasmade]



Teddy Bruschi is making himself out to be one roid raging prick.

I agree. Usually he makes good points on all things NFL but the Chad Ochocinco thing was just him being a dick.

 

[venessian]



Teddy Bruschi is making himself out to be one roid raging prick.

+2.

Crazy...him, Damien Woody, Rodney Harrison..."We're all such tough, bad-ass, sour-faced macho NE Beli-clones...if you're playing you shouldn't be in awe!!!"

Jeez, Ocho deserves a lot of the guff he gets, but I read his comment as simply a congratulatory pat on the back to his new teammates. These prima donnas are making it seem Ocho doesn't even care about the team at all. Weird.

 

[MetroStyles]

Lol at both Cowboys and Redskins comments.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/4226/first-look-the-onions-get-out-of-my-face

 

[HRoi]

i'm all in on the Lions this year from a fantasy perspective. Stafford, Megatron and Jahvid Best!


somehow i think i'll regret this.

 

[vaalbara]

My picks:

Lions > Chiefs
Raiders > Bills
Bucs > Viqueens
Saints > Bears
Ravens > Titans
Browns > Colts
NYJ > Jags
Steelers > Seahawks
'Skins > Cards
Packers > Panthers
Cowgirls > 49ers
Pats > Chargers
Texans > 'Fins
Broncos > Bengals
Eagles > Falcons