NFL 2011/2012 Discussion

[Blog Marley]

I own both Graham and Gronkowski in the SF league. It's always hard deciding who to start...

 

[phreak]

Last week: 6-4

Season: 22-14

I had a buddy who was really into football/poker/betting in general a couple years ago. He was pretty sharp...think degenerate quant type. Anyway, we worked out a deal where we would take each others NFL bets against the spread. Not every game just the ones we liked. We would write them out and talk about it over lunch on either Thursday or Friday. We had the same list with the games in the same order. Then we'd start from the top and note who and what game the other had. And if we both had the same pick, it just alternated who got to keep the pick and who took on the 'bad' action. Not the most creative solution but it worked out and seemed to be fair. It was UNREAL how well the picks both of us liked did over the entire season. It was something like 77%, which is unheard of for any serious length of time(~5 picks per week over nearly an entire season lol sample size w/e). We could have made a great ROI if we played those picks against someone besides ourselves haha. But, he moved away before week 16 and I never got my payout lol. We are no longer in contact.

Week 5 picks against the spread:

Tennessee +8 @ Pittsburgh (opened from 8 to 6, unlisted, then re-opened at 3.5 to 6...and it's settled at 3)

Minnesota -1 vs Arizona Peterson dominates..McNabb has his best game of this year so far..and Beanie is shut down

Philadelphia -1 @ Buffalo The Eagles, desperate, finally put together a complete game. They are better almost everywhere when compared to Buffalo..except for the defensive front 7 but that doesn't matter much. Everyone knows how talented the Philly offense can be but this week we finaly see it in action. Vick, Maclin, and Jackson look like they are finally healthy. And they should be inspired to run it up some. Nnamdi needs to start playing man-to-man and stop trying to be Charles Woodson. Buffalo disappoints.

NYJ + 9.5 @ NE ?? Revis on Welker (?) and no Hernandez. Sanchez throws for 300 and 3td

Atlanta +7 vs GB Upset alert. Atl drops 35+ at home and pulls away in the 4th

Seattle +11 @ NYG Tavaris in the hurry-up all game. Watch it.

NO -6 @ Carolina The Panthers can't stop..well, anything. The Saints throw on anyone and everyone runs on the Panthers. Expect NO to drop 30+. Carolina *should* be able to move the ball but I expect Cam to have a couple of turnovers that allows NO to cover easily. Carolina does tend to cover with trash-time scores though :/ A rb besides Sproles will have a big day. Steve Smith could go for 200.

Detroit -5.5 vs Chicago The Lions match up really well with Chicago. Cutler will be on his backside all game because Chicago can't stop anyone's pass rush. Forte won't be effective as a runner...maybe cathing out of the backfield, but not running through the line. And for some reason (well tough first 4 games mainly) the Bears are giving up way too many yards in the air. Detroit should exploit this mu well. Just think how good Detroit will be when they start playing both halves.

KC +3 **had the spread at KC -3...changed to show correct** @ Indy (pending injuries) On Monday night, Indy lost their first 3 picks..all of which the Colts were depending on this year. That on top of two defensive captains (Brackett and Bullitt), Gonzo hasn't played, Foster is done for the year, Moala/Sims/Collins/Diem/Nevis(R)/Castonzo(R) are all out indefinitely. Oh and Manning. The 4th quarter of the TB game had a recent practice squader playing RT...and it was a disaster. The run game completely fell off after the injuries occured and Painter was constantly hurried. Their chances of winning drop significanty if Castonzo and Diem miss the game. The Indy linebackers and pass rushers are dominant units and are keeping them in games. The secondary plays 'who can give the biggest cushion' every play...but that's probably because they would get burned otherwise. It will come down to if Breaston/Bowe/Baldwin and Co can score ~17, because that's all it will take to win. I predict they can.

Oakland +7.5 @ Houston No AJ80...this isn't the same offense without him.

SD -3.5 @ Denver Tebow time lol

I may fill in the rest later but no time now

 

[HRoi]

i agree that they seem to be laying too many points against Tennessee and Seattle

 

[bdeuce22]

scored tickets to MNF!!

 

[Rambo]

Henne is out for the year

 

[HRoi]



Henne is out for the year

Out of the teams in the suck-for-Luck sweepstakes, the dolphins are the one that actually needs a qb...

 

[airblaster503]



scored tickets to MNF!!

Nice should be a good game. Fairley making his debut going up against that shoddy Bears line. Will be to much to handle if Suh and him are in there on passing downs. Cutler out of the game by mid 3rd quarter

 

[bdeuce22]

^^ was lucky to get them. prices are sky high, but it's their first home MNF game in god knows how long. *******. it'll be crazy down there. from the talk on sports radio, people are more excited for a MNF game than the Tigers playoff run. that's how much detroit is craving a good lions team.

 

[deadly7]



Minnesota -1 vs Arizona Peterson dominates..McNabb has his best game of this year so far..and Beanie is shut down

I'll take you up on this. I think McNabb is in a position to make the Cardinal secondary look proficient on Sunday. If he plays the whole game I give Arizona a 3 point win.

 

[phreak]



I'll take you up on this. I think McNabb is in a position to make the Cardinal secondary look proficient on Sunday. If he plays the whole game I give Arizona a 3 point win.

Oh it's possible that McNabb makes the Cardinals look good. Percy will get his and also the TEs should get lots of throws their way. McNabb's stat line should depend on the deep ball to Berrian. He should get the coverage he wants, it just depends on if McNabb can find/hit him. And McNabb has a habit of playing huge in games where his job is potentially on the line.

But really, if the Vikings can find a way to get Peterson 27+ touches McNabb shouldn't need to have a big game.

 

[Rambo]

Anybody know what happened with Al Davis? Was it sudden or was he sick? I had thought he was in ok health.

 

[NAMOR]

how was he even available?

 

[Warren G.]



^^ was lucky to get them. prices are sky high, but it's their first home MNF game in god knows how long. *******. it'll be crazy down there. from the talk on sports radio, people are more excited for a MNF game than the Tigers playoff run. that's how much detroit is craving a good lions team.

iirc, the Lions probably get like one prime time game a year (thanksgiving).

 

[phreak]

Looks like I'm gonna be able to watch some football today cuz all of my Sunday plans are rained out :/

 

[JayJay]



Anybody know what happened with Al Davis? Was it sudden or was he sick? I had thought he was in ok health.

I haven't heard any more than he died. He was 82, and at that age especially it could have been natural causes.